2008 Elections

2008 Elections

Community Organizers Take Different Approach than Campaigners - 5/18/07

Among our Democratic presidential candidates, Barack Obama (who was a community organizer before becoming involved in politics) is clearly far better than his competitors at grass roots mobilization. With lesser poll ratings than Clinton, he is getting massive turnouts at his appearances and surprised everyone with his fundraising and the breadth of his donor base. I am guessing that these miracles are based upon unpublicized organizing. Being unanticipated, they have created a huge impression. Go to Barack Obama’s, John Edwards’ and the Democratic Central Committee’s websites to see their alternative approaches to establishing and empowering local grassroots groups

If Barack Obama’s local groups can canvass and get out the vote in next winter’s primaries the way they have gotten people out for his appearances and raised funds, we may see another miracle: vote totals far exceeding those predicted by the polls. For us strategy enthusiasts, we want to know the respective values of local organizing, electronic politicking and media campaigning. What is the ideal mix for various political situations?

Differences among Democratic Presidential Candidates – 11/16/07

C-Span showed six Democratic presidential candidates making speeches at the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson celebration. Hillary Clinton’s speech began with an impassioned description of our National Nightmare and need to restore our American dream. She then shifted her tone and tempo to describe the difficulties experienced by various people she had met while campaigning in Iowa. She then indicated her eagerness to play offense against the special interests that are obstructing our public interest. Finally she became a cheerleader for Democratic presidential and congressional victories in 2008. Her twenty minute speech was like four 5 minute speeches, each compatible with the others, but different in style.

By contrast all of the other candidates’ 20 minute speeches seemed boring. Obama stressed what he was for and not for, and his desire to bring people together. John Edwards described his mission to provide others with the freedoms and opportunities to achieve the success that he has achieved. But voters are not primarily interested in the candidates’ motivations. Voters want to know how their challenges will be met, including who the opponents are which must be beaten. Voters recognize that we can not work closely with intransigent Conservatives who are dependent upon campaign contributions from the enemies of what we want. We have to overwhelm them. That’s why voters voted for ‘Give them hell’ Harry Truman.

Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Christopher Dodd primarily speak of their experience and qualifications. But they have failed to distinguish what they think must be achieved and how from what the frontrunners would do.

Hillary Clinton has not been my first preference. But voters increasingly support her to the other Democratic candidates and to potential Republican opponents. I also predict that all of the Republican candidates will become more unpopular as they compete with each other perhaps clear through next summer to their convention.

Even self identified liberals are increasingly supporting Hillary Clinton. The number of voters who view her unfavorably is declining. It will be difficult to persuade her many women supporters to switch to another candidate. If she is likely to be our Democratic candidate, our priority should become to stimulate her to take firm consistently liberal stands against Conservative opponents, with no unnecessary compromises. The larger the congressional Democratic majorities we can provide, the more our president will feel free to stand firm.

Replacing our Republican members of congress requires a disciplined statewide effort to get our voters to vote, especially those which need coaxing. We first must identify those who without stimulation might not vote. We must canvass our precincts to identify our less passionate and active likely Democratic voters. None of our other activities can have such an impact. We need 20-50 hours of canvassing in each precinct, directed toward the households containing unidentified potential voters.

Predicting Our 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee - 12/28/07

In Our Puget Sound Liberals newsletter #70 published on May 18, 2007, under Liberals and Democrats, They Don’t Know How to Mobilize Grassroots, I published the following:

Community Organizers Take Different Approach than Political Campaigners

Most of the political activists I meet assume that a major objective is to obtain maximum publicity concerning intentions and capabilities. My background is not politics. It is community organizing which makes a very different assumption. We seek to quietly create an infrastructure, which enables us to perform. Without advance publicity, when we perform something that no one believed could happen, it appears as a miracle which surprises them and catches their attention. We avoid raising expectations and creating vaporware. Our credibility may come more slowly, but if it comes it is much more deeply rooted in a product rather than a dream. Miracles entice people to become involved.

If Barack Obama’s local groups can canvass and get out the vote in next winter’s primaries the way they have gotten people out for his appearances and raised funds, we may see another miracle: vote totals far exceeding those predicted by the polls. [Bold red added] For us strategy enthusiasts, we want to know the respective values of local organizing, electronic politicking and media campaigning. What is the ideal mix for various political situations?

More recently, I was persuaded by Hillary Clinton’s high poll numbers, especially among women that she would become the nominee. In our newsletter #92 published on October 19, 2007, I wrote:

President Hillary Clinton and Vice-President?

Hillary Clinton has maintained and widened her lead over her competitors for nomination as our Democratic party presidential nomination. Her lead over Rudolph Giuliani and the other Republican candidates is widening. Her lead is especially large among women voters, whose support is unlikely to diminish. So, our next president appears increasingly to be Clinton. If so, what can we expect?

It is always difficult to predict what a candidate will do after they become president. Even they don’t know what they will do when they encounter unexpected challenges. While running they find it tempting to emphasize what voters want to hear and deemphasize what they don’t. Presidents never perform up to our highest expectations and often disappoint us, as is demonstrated by a review of even our most revered presidents.

Facing large Democratic congressional majorities and favorable support from mainstream America, Clinton will have the opportunity to enact much liberal legislation in accordance with our agenda presented at the beginning of this newsletter. The major challenge will be resistance from powerful and wealthy corporations and industries who defend their special interests, so well-served during the Bush administration. Unfortunately, these corporations and industries may corrupt many Democrats just as they have our Republicans.

It is difficult to distinguish Hillary Clinton’s past performance from that of her husband, Bill Clinton. He repeatedly compromised liberal causes with special interests, although it may be noted that he had much less support from congress or the American public than we can expect Hillary Clinton to have. Hillary Clinton’s track record independent of her husbands’ has been primarily her performance as a New York Senator. As senator, she has made few ideological statements, mainly focusing upon creatively helping New Yorkers. The result is that her popularity has continually grown.

If she can achieve a lot of our liberal agenda, does it matter that she doesn’t speak ideologically. FDR didn’t speak ideologically until after he had been president for several years and encountered stiffening resistance from Conservatives. Perhaps Hillary Clinton will do the same. If she becomes our Democratic nominee, I expect to support her wholeheartedly, grant her a limited honeymoon period and encourage the best.

Another interesting question. Who will Clinton select as vice president? Imagine a second Clinton-Gore ticket. Al Gore brings a Nobel peace prize, expertise concerning new technologies and our military, and a track record of making our government more efficient and smaller. Dave Thomas

More recently yet, Barack Obama’s poll numbers are increasing markedly, especially in our early primary states. This is what in May, I predicted might happen. But while I think Barack Obama wins in early states could increase his poll numbers elsewhere, I still predict that Hillary Clinton will retain enough women’s votes across the country to win.

More on Hillary Clinton

It has been said that John Edwards emphasizes confrontation, Barack Obama emphasizes reconciliation and Hillary Clinton emphasizes perspiration. Barack Obama also emphasizes good judgment and creativity. I think that John Edwards also emphasizes his background and that Hillary Clinton also emphasizes her willingness to confront special interests. But since Hillary Clinton is closely connected to establishment campaign advisors and donors, many Liberals distrust that she will confront special interests. It may be that Hillary can use some of the establishment to confront other parts which resist public interest reforms.

In Mark Halperin and John Harris’s The Way to Win, they describe Hillary Clinton’s many advantages:

”She is already her party’s best-known figure, and is the most prolific fund-raiser in politics besides George W. Bush. She is popular with large segments of the electoral pillars of her party, including women, labor unions, African-Americans, Hispanics, and gays and lesbians. Like her husband, she has been part of the Democratic Party’s national Conversation for more than three decades. She has close ties to the elected officials, policy experts, activists, consultants, and political operatives who are needed to run for president. She has been traveling to key early nominating states such as Iowa and New Hampshire for years and, more recently, has been hosting important activists from those states at her Washington home.

She knows about the importance of not giving up when conditions look dire in a presidential campaign; about the necessity of projecting optimism; about the consequence of appearing strong and consistent in message and policies; about the relevance of reading a poll correctly; about the reasons national security and homeland security are critical to the job of president; about the imperative of addressing perceived flaws with alacrity; about the though processes of values voters; about keeping a keen focus on the Electoral College; and about why it is vital to reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of both parties when formulating a campaign platform.”

Edwards, Obama or Clinton? No Circular Firing Squad. - 12/28/07

Several Liberals who prefer John Edwards or Barack Obama have told me they will be quite unhappy if Hillary Clinton wins our Democratic presidential nomination. I hope we don’t form a circular firing squad, as Liberals have done so often in the past. I argue that all three of our leading candidates are tremendously better than any of the Republican candidates.

Edwards, Obama and Clinton have some differences. For example one commentator summed up their emphases as confrontation, conciliation and perspiration. But all three of them have increasingly displayed similar amounts of all three as ingredients necessary to making changes. Most of all, I believe that based upon what we know about a candidate when we vote, we can never be sure what he or she will do if elected.

When FDR ran in 1932, voters could not have predicted the New Deal. Most of those who voted for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 could not have predicted the extent of his Great Society programs, the enactment of the Voting Rights Act or the escalation of the Vietnam War, all of which contributed to weakening our Democratic Pary. Who could have predicted that Richard Nixon would visit China, impose price controls, and support many social service and environmental proposals? When Bill Clinton ran in 1992, voters could not have predicted that he would have worked toward a balanced budget, instead of increasing funding for our social and physical infrastructure. Or that he would give NAFTA priority over universal health care.

I will be very happy to vote and work for the election of whomever becomes our Democratic presidential nominee. I will never know what any of the other candidates would have done. But I am confident that I will be happy with much that will occur and unhappy that some. This would be true no matter who is elected.

After being unhappy with the exaggeration of our Cold War for 40 years and unhappy with our National Nightmare of going on 8 years, I am patient enough to avoid letting the perfect become the enemy of progress. Particularly when I can not be sure how much progress is possible and how fast.

Major Issues Not Addressed – 12/28/07

Our Democratic presidential candidates have addressed some major issues, such as ending our occupation of Iraq and creating universal health care. But neither our Republican or Democratic presidential candidates have given much attention to some major issues which should be addressed:

· creating a fair tax system which creates sufficient revenue to support our American Dream,

· ending the legal treatment of corporations as people,

· instituting an expenditure budget (including subsidies) which eliminates waste,

· stimulating the revival of our innovation society

· providing leadership toward democratic and powerful international governance.

At the state level, no candidates are addressing the need for substituting a fair income tax for part of our unfair property, utilities, sales and business and occupation taxes. Nor is there much legislative leadership toward eliminating private campaign financing.

The issues are major because their resolution has major impacts. Due to these major impacts, deciding them will involve major struggles against entrenched special interests. They may be third rails for political candidates. But we need candidates who are willing to lose if raising these issues is necessary to resolving them favorably.

Iowa and New Hampshire – 1/11/08

Democrats Will Soon Pick a Nominee

The main thing is that the Democrats are reduced to 3 candidates (Barack Obama, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton), with only 2 likely to survive this month. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama won't quit, but with only two of them, one will win a majority of the delegates.

Hillary Clinton began with more name recognition, a vast network of established supporters and great fund raising capability. I believe Barack Obama’s success is due primarily to his superior grass roots organizing. His emphasis on change based upon reaching across traditional party lines has attracted young voters and independents. By contrast, voters have been less attracted to Hillary Clinton’s and John Edwards’ emphasis of their experience.

I was surprised that a majority of Iowa women supported Barack Obama. But in New Hampshire, a majority of women voted for Hillary Clinton. In future state contests, the women’s vote will be crucial. Wasn’t it fun to see the pollsters fail? From now on, the pundits will have less influence on voters. Also important is: Will John Edwards supporters mostly support Barack Obama?

Republicans Will Continue Their Rivalry

The Republicans have 6 candidates (Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Thompson and Paul) who received over 10% points in Iowa or nationally. While all of the Republicans are appealing to Christian conservatives, their various different emphases and approaches to the Iraq War, dealing with terrorism, global warming, immigration, our social safety net, campaign reform and corruption provide each of them with a unique set of supporters.

So their race may continue for a long time. This means they may spend their limited funds attacking each other and trying to appeal to their Christian conservative base right up to their national convention, leaving little time and money for the wounded winner to appeal to mainstream voters, who are already turned off by Republicans. For more.

Many more Democrats than Republicans are participating in the caucuses and elections. Leading Democrats have much more money. I predict our fall elections will initiate our third Liberal revival in the last 75 years, the previous ones beginning in 1934 and 1964. While I have supported John Edwards, I think it will be wonderful to have a president who isn't a white man. Dave Thomas

Different Democratic Campaign Messages – 1/11/08

As I have expressed previously, I believe Barack Obama’s superior campaign organizing has contributed much to his surging popularity. I am also trying to understand the influence of the various campaign messages upon candidate popularity. Here are some of my tentative thoughts. These are based upon the differing emphases upon Vision, Challenges, Strategies, Cooperation and Experience (See our Liberal Spirit commentary below.)

Barack Obama

More than the other candidates, Barack Obama has emphasized his vision of an America of the people, by the people and for the people. He implies that our greatest challenge is disunity and that attaining unity is necessary for meeting our other challenges. Through unity, we can overcome the special interests and cooperate to restore our American Dream. He stresses his history of being a uniter, not a divider. Barack Obama also avoids canned presentations and clichés, showing a remarkable ability to respond directly to his audience through on-the-spot reflection. We also see his reflective ability (unusual in politicians) in his two autobiographies.

Barack Obama reminds me of Howard Dean. Both emphasize that we need to become a movement to realize our Dreams. The difference is that Howard Dean wanted to mobilize the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party to overcome the failing Democratic establishment. Barack Obama wants to mobilize both Democratic and Independent Liberals and even disillusioned Republicans to overcome the failing Washington D.C. gridlock to restore our American Dream. For more.

John Edwards

John Edwards often expresses the same speech he used in 2004. He describes the challenge of two Americas, one poor and powerless and the other rich and powerful. He relates his experience to earn his way from the former to the latter, through protecting the former from the latter. He proclaims that his long time commitment to creating one America is the outgrowth of his experience. He emphasizes the challenge, his commitment and experience. He has also presented more specific strategies (policies) than the other two candidates.

My conclusion is that people are more excited by Barack Obama’s vision than by John Edwards’ emphasis upon our challenge of two Americas. We are more excited by Barack Obama’s reflection on the American Dream (freedoms and opportunities) which allowed him his success than we are by John Edwards’ story of success based upon serving the abused. Other than us few policy wonks, most voters aren’t interested enough in detailed strategies (policies) to study them enough to understand them and the differences among candidates.

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton began with major advantages of name recognition, experience, networking and fundraising. Like John Edwards, she has not emphasized a vision for America. She has focused upon the challenges, how difficult they are and how much experience is needed to deal with them. She has been reluctant to present specific strategies (policies), emphasizing that she will have to deal with the very specific situations she encounters. She and Barack Obama are right not to commit to specific strategies (policies), since it is unlikely they can predict the situation they will find and since the voters don’t understand them. Expressing detailed strategies primarily opens a candidate to attacks in which rivals take their statements out of context. This is why most candidates won’t answer the questions posed by Vote Smart.

Some people have believed Hillary Clinton to be a divider. Others have feared that with her relations to the Washington establishment, she would be unable to produce change. Also important is that Americans don’t like bad news. In politics, we are perhaps suckers for visionary ideas, and turned off by even realistic statements of our challenges. Remember the reactions to President Carter’s malaise speech. See an analysis and recommendations for Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton still has enormous advantages, especially her support from women. I thought that these women would stick with her, so I am surprised that in Iowa, a majority of them supported Barack Obama. To win, his popularity will have to increase throughout our big states. It now looks much more possible than before Iowa. But New Hampshire shows that Clinton still will be tough to beat.

Tentative Conclusions about Campaign Messages

We voters prefer Sunshine in America and visionary statements compared to gloomy statements of our challenges. We like Happy Warriors. Our few policy wonks demand policy and strategy statements. But most of us prefer simple narratives about the best that America is and can be, some examples of wrongs to be righted, and what is to be done. Barack Obama appears have two advantages: grass roots organization and an inspiring message.

Many Issues Are Ignored by Democratic Candidates - 1/25/08

Our Democratic candidates are appearing together at many forums. But they are ignoring many important issues. Partly this is because the moderators of the forums are primarily raising issues concerning which they hope to provoke controversy among the candidates. But even their campaign speeches and their proposals on their websites largely neglect the following issues.

Perhaps because they don’t think them important. Perhaps because they don’t think our voters care. Perhaps because they think their views will be unpopular. Nevertheless, we need to know the extent to which our candidates care about these issues, what they think about them and what they would do.

· What global governance do we need to control conflicts between and within nations and to regulate globalization to our benefit? How should we reform our United Nations and other global organizations? What role should our government play in this reform.

· What role should our United States play to minimize global warming and other environmental challenges? What changes should we make. What global changes should we work with others to make.

· How should the Israeli colonization of Palestine be ended? What role should our United States and other parties play?

· How should we act toward Arab and other dictatorships? What carrots and sticks should we use?

· What should we do about are farm subsidies and other economic and trade policies which negatively affect the workers of other countries? What should we do about immigration?

· What role should our armed forces play. Toward what objectives should they be used? What type and size of our armed forces are needed to achieve these objectives? How do we avoid the waste that comes from preparing to fight previous wars, of types that are unlikely today? How do we avoid the hidden costs of our military, such as environmental pollution and dealing with long term injuries to our troops.

· What should we do to encourage innovation, both at home and abroad?

· What legislation do we need to restore our civil liberties that have been weakened by our fear of terrorists and by technological change?

These are issues that have been largely neglected so far. There are others that haven’t come to mind? We should attempt to stimulate our candidates to address them. This would be more likely to occur if we had more political parties to take positions on these issues. Dave Thomas

Barack Obama’s Huge Victory – 2/1/08

Barack Obama’s victory in the South Carolina Primary was huge. He received twice as many votes as his major competitor Hillary Clinton. He received large majorities of votes from most groups of voters, many of whom were voting for the first time.

Barack Obama’s South Carolina Victory speech (video) expressed clearly his vision of one America, in which members of all of our diverse American groups come together to change America, Washington DC and our political establishment. In which we have hope. In which we want change. In which we believe that together “yes, we can.”

Barack Obama recognized that the struggle to win the presidency and to make change will not be easy. But his speech may be a major factor in stimulating voters across our county to vote for him on February 5^th and beyond. Barack Obama’s speech was a major contrast with Hillary Clinton’s ‘business as usual’ presentation in Tennessee. We have posted it on our website.

See Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement. And endorsements of other Kennedy family members. See video. See Barack Obama accepting Kennedy endorsements (video). Will Al Gore endorse Barack Obama? Could Al Gore become Vice President again, serving with President Barack Obama? Paul Krugman warns that Barack Obama’s specific policies are important.

Presidential Races Narrow: Giuliani and Edwards Quit – 2/1/08

I have been hoping and predicting that our Democrats would choose our presidential nominee by the end of March. And that Republicans would be unable to choose their nominee until much later. If so, Republican candidates would be spending time and effort trying to appeal to their Conservative base while the Democrats are readying for the general election. The Republicans would arrive at their convention with little money and little time to reorient their message toward our broader more liberal American opinion.

With Giuliani out, three viable Republican candidates remain: Senator John McCain, Mitt Romney and Michael Huckabee. Unless Huckabee remains viable, Republicans may quickly choose their nominee. With John Edwards out, we should know by the end of March whether Senator Hillary Clinton or Senator Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee. See what John Edwards proposed.

At present, Hillary Clinton appears to have more support. But Barack Obama appears to be catching up. Will he catch up enough by Super Tuesday on February 5, 2008, particularly in large winner-take-all states?

No Circular Firing Squad – 2/8/08

Our Democrats have a well known tendency to lose presidential elections, even ones in which American mainstream voters agreed with us. We need to not just win. We need to win big, so our Democratic president has a clear mandate to create a Liberal future. Our largest threat this fall is the failure of Democrats to enthusiastically support our candidate.

After one of our candidates wins the nomination, it will be important that supporters of the other do more than reluctantly vote for the winner. They should also canvass, phone and otherwise campaign to elect our Democratic candidate, hopefully by a large margin. I have heard in conversation and read in emails, far too many supporters of Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton (locally and nationally) bad-mouthing the other candidate. How can these bad-mouthers then expect the supporters of the other candidate to support theirs.

Say good things about your favored candidate. Say bad things about Republican candidates. But please avoid saying bad things about other Democrats. Such talk can only cause some of us to drop out when our support is needed. Our support is needed for all of our Democratic candidates. Remember that one of the appealing things about our candidates is their intention to bring us together to deal with the lobbyists and others who have obstructed our progress. Dave Thomas

I Was Wrong – 2/8/08

I have anticipated that the Republicans might be unable to choose their presidential nominee until late in the primary/caucus process. I hadn’t expect Fred Thompson and Rudolph Giuliani to receive so few votes and quit the race. I also hadn’t realized that John McCain would benefit from the Republican winner-take-all rules in many states in which Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee split the consistent Conservative votes. It appears that they have selected John McCain.

But luckily the Republicans are not united behind John McCain. And it’s difficult to imagine that his hawkish stance on Iraq and Iran will attract any Liberal votes. I believe either of our candidates can beat John McCain easily, unless our Democrats refuse to act together. Dave Thomas

What if Obama Was a Woman? Or Clinton a Black? – 2/8/08

If Barack Obama was a woman, our choice would be between two women of different races. How would this affect the number of voters for each? Would more voters stay home.

What if Hillary Clinton was black? And our choice was between two blacks of different genders? How would this affect the number of voters for each? Would more voters stay home?

Similarly, we can imagine a race between the two if they were both white. Or both men. What would be the effect of these changes upon the voting of White men, White women, Black men and Black women? I don’t know. It is raises interesting questions about the role of gender and race in our elections.

Where Were You During the Revolution? 2/15/08

A political revolution is occurring. The third Liberal renewal since the 1930s, the previous ones occurring during the early thirties after the election of President Franklin Roosevelt and during the 1960s when John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson were presidents. We are being called to create change. Change in America. In Washington D.C. In our politics. In our Democratic Party. In ourselves.

We are being called to hope. To a tough hope, which recognizes that change is not easy. Change is a struggle. Change includes both ups and downs. Change requires the spiritual fortitude which enables perseverance. Change requires hope to sustain action, when passivity and cynicism can easily defeat us.

Change requires the discomfort of cooperating across previous divides. Creating unity without sacrificing integrity. Change requires recognizing our past, its virtues and defects. Being ready to give up our defects to experiment with new and uncomfortable ways.

But participating in a revolution is also exhilarating. The excitement of joining with kindred souls. The excitement of being part of something greater than ourselves. The excitement of seeing change to which we contributed, even when it is difficult to see the fruits of our particular actions. The excitement of risking our comfort and more. The excitement of our deepest emotions and values being touched profoundly. The lingering excitement of the stories of our involvement.

What will you say, when people ask, “What did you do during the revolution?” “What did you contribute?” “What were your experiences?” What will you tell your grandchildren? Will you be able to tell them that you tried to create a better world? Will you be able to inspire them to do the same?

What a terrible thing it is to waste a revolution, by sitting on the sidelines. By being a voyeur, when others are having all the fun. Like a child at the beach, we must decide whether to join in building sand castles, or simply sneer at those who do. Come and join in the fun. Come and win and lose with us. Come and test yourself. As President Roosevelt said, “We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.” Dave Thomas

Who’s on Second? Vice President Nominee? 2/15/08

A Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket have discussed. I can’t imagine either happening. Only in the case of the Kennedy/Johnson ticket can I remember someone choosing a rival with an independent political base as Vice Presidential candidate. That may have enabled them to win the election, but they never were close.

I am amazed that no one has suggested that Al Gore would be a great candidate for either one of them. He is popular, from a border red/blue state and has expertise (concerning military, technology, environmental and government organization issues) which adds to the expertise of either Clinton or Obama. He certainly would be ready to act on day one. He might not accept it. But it would provide him a great bully pulpit for promoting his environmental concerns and proposals.

Either candidate should choose John Edwards as Attorney General. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Holbrook, Strobe Talbot and Bill Richardson might be considered for Secretary of State. Wesley Carter might be considered for National Security Advisor. For more. If he can be spared from the Senate, Christopher Dodd might be appointed secretary of Health and Social Services. In an Obama administration, Hillary Clinton might become our delegate to the United Nations, a role compatible with Bill Clinton’s international projects. All of the cabinet members should be highly qualified and oriented to changing their departments toward more effectively meeting current challenges. Unlike virtually all those who who President Bush chose for political purposes. Dave Thomas

Johnny One-Note McCain – 2/15/08

Johnny One-Note McCain wants us to spend up to 100 years occupying Iraq. That would leave us few resources for doing anything else. So that would be our only priority? Does he also want to resume our war with North Korea, since we didn’t win that one? Resume our war with Vietnam? And he has indicated that we should start one with Iran.

Eisenhower in Korea, Nixon after much delay in Vietnam, and Reagan in Lebanon, all had the good sense to cut and run. But then, Johnny One-Note McCain is no Eisenhower, Nixon or Reagan. He’s a war hero who became our most avid super-war-hawk. With Johnny One-Note McCain, it’s: Goodbye economy. Hello war.

Try to sell all these wars to our American people. Try to sell even one of them. His foreign policy is dead on arrival. And his attempts at other policies don’t please either Liberals or Conservatives. We Liberals should say: Bring him on. Bring Johnny One-Note McCain on. Hello Democratic president. Goodbye Johnny One-Note McCain.

Barack Obama will win Democratic Nomination – 2/22/08

I am again risking a prediction. I believe that, due to his superior grassroots organization, his ability to raise campaign donations and his reflective (the Urgency of Now, Change You Believe In, Tough Hope, Yes We Can) speeches, Barack Obama will win the Democratic presidential nomination. More than that, he is creating a broad-based movement to support both his election and his proposals as president.

I believe both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can easily beat John McCain. But instead of uniting Republicans against him, Barack Obama may stimulate some of them to support him. Focusing upon Americans hoping and struggling together to produce changes necessary to restore our American dream instead upon himself and his biography, Barack Obama provides little target for swift-boating. The comparison between him and his comprehensive vision and much older Johnny One-Note Warhawk McCain will work tremendously to his favor. Instead of only playing defense, I expect that his offense will cause Johnny One-Note McCain to mainly play defense. In addition, we can expect the best grassroots campaign ever, with Barack Obama providing long coat tails for congressional candidates, who are necessary to pass his proposals. After Obama wins the election, Johnny One-Note McCain can appear in Viagra advertisements.

Barack Obama’s Cabinet – 2/22/08

In one of our Democratic presidential candidate forums, participants were asked what book they had recently enjoyed. Barack Obama replied with Doris Kearns Goodwin’s 750 page 2005 book, Team of Rivals, The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln. This book describes how President Abraham Lincoln chose his political Republican, Whig and Democratic rivals for his 1961-1964 cabinet, how he treated them, and how he won their affection, even though several continued to promote themselves to replace him in 1865. This book engrossingly describes Abraham Lincoln’s political genius enough to make reading such a long book worthwhile.

I don’t know how much this book affected Barack Obama’s views concerning his appointments to his administration. But in response to another question, he said he wanted a diversity of opinion reflecting the concerns of the American people. Unlike President Bush, he wanted his colleagues to be able to challenge his thinking, since he would not always be right. If Barack Obama follows Abraham Lincoln’s example, who would he include among his appointments?

Hillary Clinton is an obvious example (perhaps as delegate to the United Nations). Obvious to me also is Al Gore as Vice President with the mandate to provide American leadership to a global response to climate change and the reclamation of our American reputation. Some of the other Democratic presidential candidates would be chosen, if congressmen can be replaced with other Democrats. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should be chosen. Perhaps also Colin Powell, Christine Whitman, Paul O’Neal and some moderate Republican members of congress. A cabinet including such Democratic, Independent and Republican members as these would be a major part of bringing us together as one United States of America.

What Would Be President Barack Obama’s Priorities? – 2/22/08

With a clear mandate, President Obama would immediately begin the process of withdrawing our troops from Iraq, while shifting some to Afghanistan. He would announce strong support for stopping the ethnic cleansing in Darfur, indicating that global responses are needed for other cases of governments abusing their people.

President Obama would quickly focus upon providing leadership for a global response to climate change. He would encourage public and private investments in sustainable energies, which do not release carbon into our atmosphere, with an emphasis upon the jobs these investments would produce. Conservation would be encouraged.

President Obama would initiate legislation to greatly curb the power of lobbyists and the corporate special interests that they support in opposition to public interest initiatives. This would be the toughest struggle, given that so many Republican and Democrat members of congress have been bought and paid for. As the lobbyists are put on the defensive, regulations and enforcement would also be increased to protect investors, workers, consumers and our environment. Unionization and labor bargaining would be facilitated. Additional revenues would be raised by restoring earlier income tax rates for our highest income families and increasing the upper limits of our FICA tax.

Attention would be given to producing a markedly different federal budget, with money shifted from military spending and subsidies for petroleum, pharmaceutical, private insurance, media, agro-business and other special interests. The agro-business subsidies may well be the most difficult to reduce, but are necessary both to provide a fair trading field for foreign farmers and for saving money which serves no useful public purpose.

The money available from increased revenues and reduction of military spending and special interest subsidies would be shifted to strengthening our safety net and restoring our American Dream. Priorities would be upon creating cost-controlled access by all to quality health and educational services, with special attention given to young children. These expenditures would be investments which would assist our economy.

Concerning our civil rights, some measures could be quickly adopted. No more torture. Fair trials for prisoners. Restoration of habeas corpus. And others. Other measures might be delayed until public opinion becomes less fearful of terrorist attack.

Why Do Polls Show So Much Support for McCain? - 2/29/08

How can our polls show that Johnny One-Note Warhawk McCain has almost as much support as Barack Obama? We know that many more people have supported Barack Obama in our Democratic primaries and caucuses than have supported Johnny One-Note Warhawk McCain in Republican primaries and caucuses. We expect that most Democrats who have supported other candidates will support Barack Obama when he becomes our Democratic presidential nominee. We understand that many Republicans have reservations about supporting Johnny One-Note Warhawk McCain. So how can the polls be so at variance with these facts.

Until the nominees are actually chosen, people typically report the extent to which they know and like the candidates. Once the nominees are chosen, the polls will reflect people’s actual political choices. They will show much more support for Barack Obama.

Once the full competition between Barack Obama and Johnny One-Note Warhawk McCain is underway, people will come to understand their political differences. They will understand that Barack Obama holds their values. They will understand that Johnny One-Note Warhawk McCain does not. That Johnny One-Note Warhawk McCain opposes their values and would act to obstruct their realization. The polls will then provide a much truer picture of voting preferences.

It’s Not the Economy. Smart People Know It’s Our Values. - 2/29/08

It’s not the economy, stupid. It wasn’t the economy, stupid in 1992. It’s our values. It’s always been our values. Our primary value is providing freedom and opportunity to everyone. A crucial means to providing freedom and opportunity is a good economy. An economy which provides jobs, income and necessary goods and services for everyone.

Our economy has usually improved when Democrats controlled our government. An exception was the Carter years, when our oil shock produced rampant stagflation. When Republicans control our government, they kill the goose that lays our golden eggs. They divert our public revenues into the hands of their non-productive wealthy and powerful cronies. They reduce public investment. Our physical and social infrastructure decays. Economic inefficiency results. Our economy becomes unfair. Productivity goes unrewarded. Our economy falters. It becomes time to return to Democratic control to restore the goose that lays our golden eggs.

Our values include much more than a good economy. We also believe in the worth of every person. We believe in fairness and compassion. Unlike Conservatives who promote unfairness and cynically oppose compassion.

Our values include our natural and social environment. We support our environment which supports us both spiritually and physically. We support our fellows who support us both spiritually and physically. Conservatives regard our environment as resources to be despoiled for personal gain. Conservatives promote a competitive (and coercive) individualism which destroys community. They don’t agree that it takes a community to raise a child and sustain an adult. They regard themselves as self-made and self-sustaining. They are terribly wrong.

To win elections, we must proclaim our values. We must then attack our Conservative opponents for opposing our values. We must attack them for obstructing the realization of our values. We must throw them on the defensive. We must force them to defend the indefensible. Then they lose. We win. We build a productive and fair economy. We also build a sustaining natural and social environment, in which we can all get ahead together. We seek to leave none of us behind.

These are our values, which we have struggled to realize for centuries. We must be clear about our values and our struggle. We must be clear about those who oppose us. We must be strategic and tactical to convert or defeat our Conservative enemies. Our values are too important, to be left unexpressed and unfought for. Now is the time. We are the people. Yes, we can.

Is Barack Obama Our Most Liberal Senator? - 2/29/08

Let’s hope Barack Obama is a least among our most Liberal senators. Let’s hope he consistently stands for our Liberal values and priorities. Let’s not be afraid of being liberal. Let’s not worry about Conservatives calling Barack Obama our most Liberal Senator. For more. For more. They would accuse any candidate we choose of being the most liberal. They have done so with each of our candidates. They will continue as long as we act like we are ashamed of being Liberal.

Our America is historically Liberal. Most Americans share our Liberal values, although Conservatives typically only give them lip service. Let’s not be afraid of being Liberal. Let’s be proud Liberals. Let’s make them ashamed of being Conservative. In fact, thanks to our Bush administration, many traditional Republicans are ashamed of being Conservative. Those with most integrity are joining us. Others are blasting their colleagues, hoping fruitlessly to change them. Many are simply hiding.

Let’s hope that Barack Obama and our other candidates will express our values. And then criticize Conservatives who oppose them. Criticize Conservatives who obstruct the realization of our values. Obstruct the realization of our values which are held by the majority of Americans.

We don’t need to belabor the word ‘liberal’. But we do need to put Conservatives on the defensive for their subversion of our values. For giving us an 8 year National Nightmare. For seeking to undermine our American Dream of freedom and opportunity for everyone. We need to end our National Nightmare. We need to restore our American Dream.

Putting Conservatives on the Defensive - 2/29/08

The largest weakness of our recent Democratic presidential campaigns have been the unwillingness to go on the offense. An untrue myth emerged that offense is counter-productive. Even though offense was obviously working very well for Conservatives.

It was erroneously thought that offense would offend Independents. In fact, only a fourth of Independents are truly independent. Half consistently support Democratic candidates. A fourth support Republican candidates. The other quarter (only 8% of all voters) pick and choose candidates among both parties. The half of Independents who consistently support Democratic candidates have often abstained from becoming Democrats, because they believe Democrats are not aggressive enough. They are attracted by a good offense.

Another myth (which pundits continually repeat) is that Barack Obama and John McCain will compete for Independents. No. Liberal Independents who are half of all Independents (16% of all voters) will not vote for John McCain. They will vote for Barack Obama, a candidate of a smaller Liberal party or not vote. Conservative Independents who are a quarter of all Independents (8% of all voters will not vote for Barack Obama. They will vote for John McCain, vote for a candidate of a smaller Conservative party or not vote. Only the remaining truly Independent voters (8% of all voters) will vote for either of the candidates or not vote.

It was erroneously thought that offense would offend wealthy contributors, who are necessary to winning campaigns. In fact, we are better off if we get most of our campaign contributions from numerous donors of small amounts. Barack Obama, other Democratic candidates, and groups who support Democratic candidates are now raising enormous amounts of money from many small contributors. Barack Obama’s campaign recently announced that they now have 1 million contributors. Small contributors are less likely to push their special interests, to corrupt the candidates they support. Making small contributions typically solidifies the contributors support and leads to other contributions of time and effort. Such contributors of small amounts are fired up by offense.

After stating our values, we must go on the offense against our conservative enemies. Hit them again and again for destroying our American Dream. For imposing a National Nightmare. For obstructing the realization of our Liberal values.

In football parlance, we must hit them high. Hit them low. Gang tackle them. Wear down their defense. Force them to make mistakes. To fumble. To throw interceptions. To drop passes. To jump offside. To incur holding, facemask, interference and other penalties. We must spend push their line back. Penetrate their line. Spend our time in their backfield. We must sack their quarterback. We must throw them off their game plan. You get the idea. Yes, we can.

Barack Obama Offers Opportunities for Supporters - 2/29/08

The following is an example of Barack Obama’s superior grass roots organization. One key strategy is to offer supporters significant and meaningful ways to get involved. Dave Thomas

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Dear Dave, hundreds of thousands of new supporters have joined our movement for change in the past few weeks, and we want to make sure everyone knows about all the opportunities to get involved in your community and online. Check out the resources below -- learn how you can connect with fellow supporters, organize in your neighborhood, build our national grassroots organization, and stay in touch with the very latest campaign news. Explore these resources yourself and forward this message to anyone you know who wants to get involved.

THE BASICS
Here are a few ways you can learn more, get the latest news, and share information with friends:

MEET BARACK
Watch a brief video and learn about Barack's early years, his education, his work as a community organizer and civil rights attorney, and his years in the Illinois and U.S. Senate. This is a great introduction to share with your friends: http://my.barackobama.com/meetBarack

OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN BLOG
Catch up on the latest news, photos, and videos from the campaign trail and share your thoughts on our official campaign blog: http://my.barackobama.com/blog

ISSUES
Learn more about Barack's positions on a variety of issues, from his opposition to the war in Iraq to his plan for universal health care: http://my.barackobama.com/issues

FACTCHECK ACTION CENTER
Barack Obama stands for a new kind of politics -- without the smear tactics that we're all fed up with. You can help push back against negative attacks and distortions right now by telling people about Barack and his background. The truth is only as strong as your voice: http://my.barackobama.com/factcheckaction

VIDEOS
Watch a few of the more than 500 videos from the campaign trail on our YouTube channel: http://my.barackobama.com/youtubechannel

OBAMA MOBILE
Our movement is ready to go wherever you are. Text HOPE to 62262 (OBAMA) to receive text updates on your mobile phone and advance notice about local Obama events: http://my.barackobama.com/mobile

ORGANIZING
Barack Obama got his start as a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago, and since he declared his candidacy in 2007, a nationwide network of supporters have taken this campaign into their own hands, organizing online and their local communities. Here are some ways to get involved:

LOCAL GROUPS AND EVENTS
My.BarackObama is an organizing tool that empowers you to take this campaign into your own hands. Connect with other supporters in your area and find out about local events, or create your own organizing group and schedule your own events: http://my.barackobama.com

SPREAD THE WORD
Introduce your friends, family, neighbors, or coworkers to Barack Obama. Let them know why you support Barack and encourage them to join our movement for change: http://my.barackobama.com/invite

BLOGS
There are more than 40,000 supporter created blogs on My.BarackObama where they chronicle their campaign experience and interact with other supporters. Find one for your community or launch your own today: http://my.barackobama.com

ONLINE PHONEBANKING
Supporters like you have put us within reach of making 1,000,000 phone calls to registered voters by March 4th. Use our online phonebanking tool to reach out to voters in crucial states from the comfort of your home:
http://my.barackobama.com/call

POSTERS, FLYERS, AND ORGANIZING RESOURCES
Print your own posters, flyers, fact sheets, supporter cards, and dozens of other resources from our online resource library: http://my.barackobama.com/resources

COMMUNITIES
Women for Obama and People of Faith for Obama are just two of the many communities large and small supporting Barack Obama. Explore a few of them here: http://www.barackobama.com/people

FUNDRAISING
Barack Obama does not accept donations from Washington lobbyists or special interest groups. Instead, we depend on a network of grassroots supporters giving whatever they can afford.

PERSONAL FUNDRAISING PAGE
Take the fundraising process into your own hands. Help support the campaign by reaching out to people you know and asking them to give through your personal fundraising page: http://my.barackobama.com/outreach

MATCH SOMEONE'S DONATION
This campaign has always been about reaching as many people as possible and bringing them into the political process. When you make a matching donation you'll learn the name and hometown of the person whose gift you match, and even exchange a note with them through our unique system: https://donate.barackobama.com/match

STORE
Let everyone in your community know that you support Barack. All purchases through our online store go to support our campaign and are considered political donations. Show your support in style: http://store.barackobama.com

The Democratic primary process is in full swing, and a strong grassroots network will be crucial to our success. Take a moment to visit www.BarackObama.com and get involved today. Thanks, Obama for America

Our Presidential Nomination Race Continues – 3/7/08

Seldom has reality been so dramatic as our crazy quilt of primaries and caucuses. In spite of major phoning campaigns conducted by Barack Obama’s campaign (1 million supporters), MoveOn (3.4 million members) and Democracy for America (675,000 members), Hillary Clinton retained her support from women, Latinos, and working class whites to beat Barack Obama in both Ohio and Texas. Johnny One-Note McCain obtained enough delegates to become the Republican nominee.

Our disadvantage is that while John McCain can focus upon strengthening his Conservative support at little expense, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be spending their time and money competing with each other. Possibly even criticizing each other in ways that will hurt the eventual nominee in the race against John McCain. Hopefully, the criticism will be no worse than what has occurred so far.

Our advantage is that our dramatic contest is drawing all the attention, enticing many new voters, Independents and disillusioned Republicans to vote for one of our candidates. Both Democratic candidates can focus their criticism on John McCain, but he can’t be sure which should be his major target.

Hopefully our primary contest will not become boring. Perhaps the candidates will suggest (in more detail) how they would bring about the changes they are promoting. How would they staff their administration? What sequence of measures would they present to the congress? How would they seek support from members of congress? What part would their supporters be asked to play.

It seems increasingly likely that our Democratic superdelegates will play a decisive role in selecting the nominee. They may be guided by their estimate of which candidate will beat John McCain by the largest margin. Of which candidate will have the longest coattails to assist the election of other national and state Democratic candidates. It is difficult to imagine that the superdelegates will make any decision which will weaken our Democratic Party and our ability to win the election.

Barack Obama has indicated that in order to change our country, we need to change our politics, our Democratic Party and ourselves. Most of our Democratic superdelegates are part of our existing Democratic Party establishment. Some of them may feel threatened by Barack Obama’s hope to change our Democratic Party.

Most Commercial Media Commentators (Pundits) Have DLC Perspective – 3/7/08

Both pundits who lean Liberally and those who lean Conservatively typically present a Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) perspective. They assume that many Independents are swing voters. Research has shown that is not true. Most Independents vote consistently for Democrats or for Republicans, with only about a fourth of them truly voting inconsistently.

Pundits view being a hawk on Iraq and other foreign policy issues as a strength, not recognizing that over 60% of American voters are for withdrawing our troops from Iraq as soon as possible. Pundits also state that candidates shouldn’t criticize the corrupt control over U.S. government by powerful and wealthy special interests. They call it populism, class warfare and pandering. For example.

But Americans recognize that their political voice counts for little in a government controlled by lobbyists and their campaign contributing backers. Americans want to gain control of their government. Barack Obama began by emphasizing creating a broad movement of Americans associated with varying races, regions, religions and political party identification. But his support increased after the South Carolina primary and the withdrawal of John Edwards, when he began emphasizing that primary obstacles to be overcome are the political influence exercised by corrupt special interests.

One of the workshops at the recent Democracy for America (DFA) Training Academy concerned analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of your candidate and the opponent in order to craft a message that emphasizes your candidate’s strengths and the other candidate’s weaknesses. A sensible approach, but crucial is being clear about which are strengths and weaknesses. The workshop leader considered being a hawk a strength and being populist as weakness.

Hope, Experience and Judgment – 3/7/08

Barack Obama has proclaimed that change is urgent. And that hope is necessary for mobilizing people to produce change. Hillary Clinton has countered that experience is necessary to pass legislation. Barack Obama has counted that judgment is more important than experience. He cites Hillary Clinton’s vote to provide President Bush authority to invade Iraq.

Barack Obama could cite to other instances of poor judgment. Hillary Clinton invited many special interests to make suggestions for the 1993-4 universal health care proposal, producing a hugely complex compromise bill with a little bit for everyone. The result was then given to Congress which had had no input into its development. The result was that no congressional constituency could be developed for the bill, which never was even brought to a vote. For the complete story, read Haynes Johnson and David S. Broder, 1996, The System, The American Way of Politics at the Breaking Point. Mobilizing public and congressional support was necessary.

More recently, Hillary Clinton assumed that she would secure enough delegates by the end of Super Tuesday (February 5^th, 2008) to win the Democratic presidential nomination. So she didn’t create campaign organizations in the states with later primaries and caucuses. The result: She lost 11 in a row, destroying any momentum she had and giving momentum to Barack Obama.

Barack Obama is not just arguing for hope. He is arguing for unity to provide the support across racial, regional, religious, gender, age and class lines for change. Imagine one president with experience assembling experts and then attempting to pass legislation through congress. Imagine another president with the support of millions, including many legislators, attempting to pass legislation through congress. It seems likely that having support (being a leader of a movement) will trump having expertise, especially if the support brings much expertise. A more detailed commentary on this topic will be included in next week’s newsletter.

Our New Liberal Political Strategies – 3/7/08

Conservatives began assembling their political infrastructure and strategies thirty years ago. Until 2005, Democrats were disarrayed. But since the 2004 loss by John Kerry, the Democrats have moved rapidly to create our own political infrastructure and strategies.

Our major political strategy is to state our Liberal values. Then without tarrying to develop detailed policies, attack our Conservative opponents for obstructing the realization of our values. For weakening our American Dream. Go on the offense, without presenting our opponent targets for his offense. Put our opponent on the defensive and keep him or her there.

Several qualifications. (1) No personal attacks. Attack their beliefs and actions, not their personal characteristics. (2) Don’t attack Republicans in general. Attack the Conservative values and obstruction of opposing candidates and their associates. (3) Attack as happy warriors, not whiney victims. Don’t whine about their tactics being unfair. Simply refute them and quickly return to the attack.

When later in the campaign, we begin expressing our priorities in more detail, make sure that they are broadly supported by Liberals and even some Conservatives. Do not stray from the central message by supporting narrow interests of our Liberal supporters. Our recommended book for this week (Don Hazen and Lakshmi Chaudhry, 2005, Start Making Sense, Turning the Lessons of Election 2004 into Winning Progressive Politics) presents strategies these in more detail. Also see about 20 other recently published books on Liberal Political Strategy on our reading list.

How Do We Campaign Against John McCain? – 3/7/08

Clinton and Gore brought us Peace and Prosperity. Our military personnel faced little risk, anywhere in the world. Millions of jobs were created. Financial inequality and poverty were reduced. We began to pay down our national debt, which would enable easier funding for the impending retirement of our boomer generation.

Under President Bush, we have suffered an almost 8 year National Nightmare. Bogged down almost alone in both Afghanistan and Iraq at enormous expense in lives, limbs and money, both ours and the peoples of these countries and our international reputation. An anemic economy, private and public corruption, the emergence and collapse of our housing and credit bubble. Stagflation with increasing unemployment and consumer prices and stagnant incomes. Most Americans (ill people, students, military personnel, employees, and retirees are more insecure. We urgently need to reclaim Our American Dream, to regain our physical, personal and financial security.

Yet Johnny One-Note McCain, only promises to resist change. He wants to continue President Bush’s policies. Beginning as a War Hero, he has become a Superhawk. He argues for staying the course in Iraq, perhaps for 100 years. All this war will leave no money for addressing any of our other issues: Energy independence. Investing in our physical infrastructure. Providing access to quality health care, education, jobs and retirement. Electing Johnny One-Note McCain would be similar to giving President Bush a third term.

Johnny One-Note has been a flip-flopper. First he was against President Bush. Now he is for him. He was against tax cuts for the rich. Now he is for them. He was for limiting spending. Now he is for spending trillions to conduct middle eastern wars. First he was against the Christian Conservatives. Now he seeks their support. Even the Conservatives don’t trust him.

We don’t want to continue our National Nightmare. We want to stop the War. To bring our troops home. To invest the money and labor we save in producing security and prosperity. We need a united America to take control of our government from the lobbyists for wealthy and powerful special interests. We need people filled with hope to change our country, our government, our politics, and our selves. Barack Obama is the one who can stimulate this hope, this unity, this change. Together, we can do it. Yes we can.

Liberal Political Infrastructure: Here and Nationally – 3/7/08

The good news is that with the splintering of the Conservatives due to the Bush administration’s deception, incompetence and corruption both at home and abroad, their infrastructure and strategies are often used in struggles between differing Conservative factions. Our Liberal infrastructure and strategies are rapidly becoming as or more effective than theirs.

We certainly have a much more developed Liberal infrastructure than a Conservative one in Washington, as evidenced by the recent turnout at our caucuses and primaries. Even without counting special advocacy groups, we have many more Liberal political organizations than Conservative ones. Adding special advocacy groups, we have a tremendous advantage. See our list of Liberal organizations.

Less Drama, but Lots of Molehills– 3/14/08

After all the drama of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Super Tuesday, Potomac, Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio and more, things are now fairly predictable. Barack Obama will stay ahead in delegates, but not by enough to win without superdelegate support.

Polls will show that compared to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama will beat John McCain by larger margins in both large and small states and blue and some red states. This will influence some superdelegates to support Barack Obama. Others will support the candidate that won the most votes in their state’s primary or caucus. Still others will vote their individual preference. Some may vote against Barack Obama because they fear the change that he promises not only to the nation and politics, but also to the Democratic Party. For example, our Washington pork addicted Democratic senators and congressmen may not want the type of reforms that Barack Obama would support.

Johnny One-Note McCain will struggle to unite Republicans behind his Bush policies of extending the Iraq War and tax cuts, while accusing the Democrats of surrendering and wanting to raise taxes. But the American public strongly agrees with the Democrats. This will become particularly evident when the Democrats finally choose their candidate. In the meantime, John McCain will face continuing questions about his relations with lobbyists and other legislative actions during his long career. His age and decreasing mental acuity will harm him.

In the absence of dramatic contests, our commercial media pundits will make mountains out of molehills. Passionate supporters of all three candidates will say outrageous things about opponents. The campaign will have to repudiate them. People with unsavory views will endorse the candidates. The candidates will have to repudiate the unsavory views. We will get lots of this, which has little to do with ending our National Nightmare and reclaiming our American Dream.

A losing candidate will be tempted to attack the frontrunner. The frontrunner will have to decide whether to ignore the attack, dismiss it as silly, or confront it, perhaps even counter-attacking. Such attacks are certainly signs of desperation. In the long run, they threaten the unity of the Democrats. I believe the Democrats will restrain their attacks, but even little jabs will be blown out of proportion by the commercial media pundits.

The commercial media pundits enjoy the drama of dirty attacks. They are now suggesting that it is good for Hillary Clinton to make these attacks against Barack Obama, since it gives us insight into what will happen when John McCain and other Republicans attack him. They should just oppose all such attacks. Note: Hillary Clinton would not be where she is if she was Geraldine Ferraro. Dave Thomas

Are We Electing a President or Commander-in-Chief? – 3/14/08

Until this election, I don’t remember candidates talking about running for Commander-in-Chief. Even during the 2^nd World War, Korean War, Vietnam War, First Gulf War. They were always just running for president, which included commander-in-chief as only one of many responsibilities. Has 9/11 changed our priorities so that commander-in-chief is more important than any of the other responsibilities? What does being commander-in-chief have to do with preventing or responding to terrorist attacks? Isn’t being in charge of intelligence and law enforcement more important?

Even more ridiculous is the campaign commercial which asked who you want to answer a phone call in the middle of the night. I don’t remember and can scarcely imagine a phone call which required an immediate answer without consultation with others. We would expect that plans would be in place to make any immediate responses, such as occurred during the attacks on Pearl Harbor.

Remember that when the 9/11 attacks occurred, President Bush continued reading a children’s story, and then spent the rest of the day in hiding. What immediate response could he have made that would have made a difference for our safety? He could have attempted to reassure us that we were responding appropriately, but that reassurance wouldn’t have made a difference concerning our safety.

Running Independently or with the Democratic Party – 3/14/08

In his Running Alone, Presidential Leadership JFK to Bush II, James MacGregor Burns argues that we have witnessed an ominous decline in presidential leadership. He believes this is the result of presidential candidates running their campaigns independent of our party organizations, beginning with John F. Kennedy.

Funding and controlling their campaigns gave candidates more control and independence from established local political groups. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton even ran as outsiders to Washington. Owing little to established groups, candidates could more independently choose members of their administration, people from Georgia or from Arkansas.

Several negative consequences resulted. Our presidents have had fewer ties to congress and state party organizations. They received less support for their legislation. Carter had major struggles with Democratic members of congress concerning dam construction and other issues. Bill Clinton never reached out for or received support for his health proposal. Exceptions were President Johnson, who had extensive congressional relations and President Reagan who reached out to help elect fellow Republicans.

The second negative consequence was that Democratic presidents especially gave little attention to strengthening the Democratic Party. Presidents Carter and Clinton both left our Democratic Party weaker than when they entered office.

To what extent will Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton run in close cooperation with our Democratic Party Organization? Barack Obama’s 50 state approach is closely aligned with Howard Dean’s approach, as are his proposals to change our politics and Democratic Party. While Obama’s supporters may threaten some established Democratic leaders, he may find many others, especially in states that have been ignored by previous candidates, quite willing to work cooperatively for his election. Favorable election prospects and the possibility of long coattails should attract support.

Hillary Clinton and her husband Bill Clinton have a poor track record of working closely with the Democratic Party Organization. She has an extensive network of established party officials, but has not shown extensive support for the Democratic Party Organization. In denigrating Barack Obama’s wins in small and medium states, Hillary Clinton may be suggesting that she would focus upon larger and so-called swing states, a losing strategy for both Al Gore and John Kerry.

One factor in choosing which Democratic presidential candidate to support should be which will best build the strength of the Democratic Party. Another is which president would obtain the cooperation of the Democratic Party at national and state levels to support his or her legislative proposals. I believe that on both of these, Barack Obama is the candidate to support. Dave Thomas

Prolonged Primary Race May Be Helping Democrats- 4/4/08

Democrats have usually chosen their presidential candidate after caucuses and primaries in only a few states. By early June, they establish their state campaign organizations and began to identify their voters. But this year, hotly contested Democratic caucuses or primaries in each state have stimulated greatly increased participation. When the winner is chosen, campaign organizations will have already been created and tested and many likely Democratic voters identified.

The grass roots state campaigns will have a running start, while John McCain’s campaign will begin with little organization and few voters identified. Barack Obama’s superior grass roots organization didn’t become apparent until the Iowa caucuses (except through the breadth of his campaign donor base). Similarly, the Democrats superior grass roots organization may not show up in the polls until just before the November election. For more.

Needed: A Platform or a Movement? - 4/4/08

Being a policy wonk, I supported John Edwards until he quit his pursuit of our Democratic presidential nomination. Then I carefully watched Barack Obama’s speeches upon winning in South Carolina and being endorsed by Senator Ted Kennedy. I became convinced that Obama’s stimulation of a national unity movement for change was as important as his particular policies. I began my support of Obama by contributing $100 to his campaign. Looking at past Liberal renewals, I noticed that Franklin Roosevelt did not indicate before his election that he would implement major changes, but only that he would do what was necessary to enable economic recovery.

I belong to an email list of people who have supported John Edwards. I recently received an email which included,

“Substance - wise, the Obama campaign has been rather pathetic. At least to me, it has reeked of arrogance for a while now. The truth is that Obama was dragged to where he is right now by John Edwards. Maybe there is something wrong with me, but by itself, nebulous rhetoric about "hope" and "change" does not a good campaign make. The Obama campaign has been successful, but that doesn't mean that it's worthy of the praise that is currently being lavished upon it.”

I strongly disagree.

Barack Obama has consistently shown more humility than other politicians. Whereas Bill Clinton’s 1050 page autobiography My Life was full of what he did and what he achieved; Obama’s two autobiographies Dreams from My Father and The Audacity of Hope were full of what he experienced, the mistakes and other responses he made and what he learned. Writing about how he became what he is today, he ascribes much to his environment and describes himself as flawed.

In his campaign speeches, Obama uses the word, “I” much less than his rivals. He dwells on his past much less than John Edwards and other candidates have dwelt on their pasts. Instead he emphasizes that the circumstances which President Bush and his Republican colleagues have produced make it urgent that we make basic changes. Making these changes requires more than an individual leader. It requires a united movement which acts toward restoring our shared American Dream through overcoming the fierce resistance of powerful private interests.

Obama pledges to appoint cabinet members and other advisors who will independently express their opinions. He says that he makes mistakes and needs the corrective advice of others. He pledges to make our government openly transparent, so our American people can understand what is happening and express their views.

There is nothing nebulous about Obama’s rhetoric about hope and change. He has explicitly defined tough hope which acknowledges the difficult struggles that are required to make the basic changes that are needed. Democrats have belatedly come to realize that voters are more interested in each candidate’s values, understanding of voter’s difficulties and in the resolve to provide appropriate government support than they are interested in the specific policies and means which will be used. By making too many specific promises (as Al Gore did in 2000), a candidate becomes the target of attack by opponents who take his or her promises out of context. Better to delay specific promises until the opponents have been forced to defend their own commitments.

But as is evident in the immediately preceding commentary, Obama has provided an in depth statement of his approach to foreign policy. Several weeks ago, he did the same with his approach to racial issues. As time goes on, we can expect the same with respect to other issues, particularly when he wins to nomination and can focus upon his differences with John McCain. Dave Thomas

Comparing Barack Obama with Earlier Leaders – 4/18/08

The following article in the April 18, 2008 issue of The Week compares Barack Obama with Martin Luther King. Martin Luther King was a religious leader, who never ran for office. I would prefer to compare Obama with Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Both ran for president in perilous times. Roosevelt had served as Secretary of Navy and New York Governor while Obama has served as Illinois State Legislator and U.S. Senator. Both had the ability to mobilize Americans in support of their efforts to reclaim our American Dream. Both had an experimental approach to dealing with the messes they encountered. With his legislative experience (and without the Northern-Southern split among members of congress), Obama may find it even easier than Roosevelt did to pass legislation.

Martin Luther King: Is Obama his heir?

Time, it appears, does not heal all wounds, said Christopher Hitchens in Slate.com. The 40th anniversary last week of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination was a painful reminder not only of that terrible day in Memphis but also of the “second-rate shakedown artists” who have been trying to pass themselves off as King’s successors ever since. Cartoonish frauds like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton have desecrated the “national civil-rights pulpit” that King established, and to this roster of “cranks and parasites” must now be added the name of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, former pastor and “spiritual mentor” to Barack Obama. King would have been appalled by Wright’s “wacky and bitterly divisive racial rhetoric,” said Juan Williams in The Wall Street Journal. The fact that today’s foremost black leader was one of Wright’s loyal parishioners shows that we still have a “crisis in racial leadership.”

The real Martin Luther King wasn’t as “meek and politically moderate” as he’s remembered, said Cynthia Tucker in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “America is founded on genocide,” he once thundered. During the Vietnam War, he preached that “we are criminals in that war,” and denounced “the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today, my own government.” Like Wright, King spoke more candidly—and angrily—to all-black audiences, said Michael Eric Dyson in the Los Angeles Times. He told them that “the vast majority of white Americans are racist, either consciously or unconsciously.” This fiery rhetoric may seem out of character for the genteel and unthreatening MLK now held up as a model by white conservatives, in their cynical attempts to marginalize the Rev. Wright and damage Obama. But by trying to portray King as a lovable saint and Wright as a frightening radical, they only “reveal a deep unfamiliarity” with the true, rebellious legacy of the black pulpit.

There were, in fact, two Martin Luther Kings, said David Brooks in The New York Times. The earlier King “was scholarly, formal, assertive, and meticulously self-controlled in public,” and he poured his passion into the writing of great speeches that inspire us yet today. But by 1968, he’d become bitter and angry, sickened by the violent opposition of Southern racists and the mocking contempt he faced from the black power movement, which regarded his appeals to white conscience to be naïve. Obama, clearly, takes his inspiration from the early King—not from “the angry and reckless” King of later years, or from the Rev. Wright. Obama’s uplifting presidential campaign, in fact, is living proof that King’s “inspiration is outlasting his critics.”

A Conservative’s Reaction to Barack Obama– 4/18/08

Bill Brown is a retired member of the Billy Graham team. He offers the following critique of Barack Obama: “We are witnessing a political phenomenon with Barack Obama of rare magnitude. His speeches have inspired millions and yet most of his followers have no idea of what he stands for except platitudes of "Change" or that he says he will be a ‘Uniter’. The power of speech from a charismatic person truly can be a powerful thing. Certainly Billy Graham had charisma and both his manner of speech and particularly the content changed millions.

On the extreme other hand, the charisma of Adolph Hitler inspired millions and the results were catastrophic. Barack Obama certainly is no Hitler or a Billy Graham, but for many Americans out there feeling just like a surfer who might be ecstatic and euphoric while riding a tidal wave, the real story is what happens when it hits shore.

Just Some of What Defines Barack Obama:

· He voted against banning partial birth abortion.

· He voted no on notifying parents of minors who get out-of-state abortions.

· Supports affirmative action in Colleges an d Government.

· In 2001 he questioned harsh penalties for drug dealing.

· Says he will deal with street level drug dealing as a minimum wage affair.

· Admitted marijuana and cocaine use in high school and in college.

· His religious convictions are very murky.

· He is willing to meet with Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, Kim Jung Il and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

· Has said that one of his first goals after being elected would be to have a conference with all Muslim nations.

· Opposed the Patriot Act.

· First bill he signed that was passed was campaign finance reform.

· Voted No on prohibiting law suits against gun manufacturers.

· Supports universal health-care.

· Voted yes on providing habeas corpus for Guantanamo detainees.

· Supports granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

· Supports extending welfare to illegal immigrants.

· Voted yes on comprehensive immigration reform.

· Voted yes on allowing illegal aliens to participate in Social Security.

· Wants to make the minimum wage a "living wage".

· Voted with Democratic Party 96 percent of 251 votes.

· Is a big believer in the separation of church and state.

· Opposed to any efforts to Privatize Social Security and instead supports increasing the amount of tax paid.

· He voted No on repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax.

· He voted No on repealing the "Death" Tax.

· He wants to raise the Capital Gains Tax.

· Has repeatedly said the surge in Iraq has not succeeded.

· He is ranked as the most liberal Senator in the Senate today and that takes some doing.

If your political choices are consistent with Barack Obama's and you think that his positions will bring America together or make it a better place, then you will probably enjoy the ride and not forward this Email. If you are like most Americans that after examining what he stands for, are truly not in line with his record, it would be prudent to get off the wave or better yet, never get on, before it comes on shore and undermines the very foundations of this great Country. We have limited time to save America or the Supreme Court as we know it. Inaction is action. If you agree this is important, pass it on. The mainstream media will not do it for you!”

Conservatives sure don’t understand what most Americans believe. Dave Thomas

What If President Bush in 2000 & 2004 Faced Our 2008 Primaries – 4/18/08

What if President Bush had to participate with other candidates in forums, primaries or caucuses in all of our states? Would voters have detected his imperial ambitions, non-compassionate conservative ideology and incompetence? Would voters have still been deceived? Would President Bush have been elected and re-elected president?

Old and New Politics – 4/25/08

We hear a lot about old and new politics, particularly from Barack Obama. What are they? What are their major differences?

Old Politics

With Johnson’s passage of the civil rights bill, southern conservatives switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party. Oil shocks, declining productivity and foreign competition ended three decades of steadily increasing incomes. Declining manufacturing employment reduced labor union membership. More wives entered the labor force. White men reacted negatively to new competition from both Afro-Americans and women. Financially threatened, middle class America reacted against programs to help our minorities and poor, losing our sense of being one national community.

With Reagan’s call for fewer taxes and less government, he capitalized on this discontent to initiate an era of Republican control. In collaboration with business interests, he redefined government from being the solution (protecting workers and consumers) to being the problem (abusing businesses). He demonized liberals and government workers for enabling incompetent poor people and labor leaders for taking advantage of workers. A determined Cold Warrior, Reagan supported the military-industrial complex, leaving post-Vietnam War Democrats to be viewed as weak on defense.

This onslaught of changing economic and social circumstances and political calamity disheartened and divided Democrats. While some Democrats sought to maintain traditional alliances and programs, others sought to distance themselves from them. Like Republicans, they began posing as Washington outsiders and sought business alliances, at the expense of our less fortunate. Losing our unity and courage, we Democrats could no longer clearly express our values. Democrats no longer played offense, only defense.

Since Democrats were divided and no longer stressing our Liberal values, Karl Rove was able to create wedge issues to attack Democrats as unpatriotic, unreligious and out-of-touch with mainstream Americans. Democrats defensively promoted Liberal proposals with which American mainstream voters agreed, but didn’t root them in our values with which American mainstream also agreed.

Swift boating and attack ads focusing on symbolically framed trivial incidents were effective. George Bush was able to become president in 2000 and was re-elected in 2004. The primary characteristic of our old politics (Liberal political strategy) is failure to express our values. Instead we increasingly copied Conservative attack ad tactics, even in our primary contests among our own candidates.

When Barack Obama refers to our old politics, he specifically points to micro-marketing which defines specific groups. Then making proposals to appeal to these various groups. This strategy focuses upon our differences and what divides us. It leads to debates about priorities among proposals which much be generalized for simultaneous implementation. It leads to attacks against representatives and enablers of our particular constituents. Both in getting elected and in governing, we bicker among ourselves instead of focusing upon our Conservative opponents. The failed attempt to pass a universal health care program is just one painful example.

New Politics

Reflecting on the Republican successes (Democratic failures) since President Johnson (especially Bush’s victories in 2000 and 2004 have aroused Democrats to review and revise their political strategies toward winning in 2008. Our major political strategies are:

· Clearly express our liberal values (which closely match our mainstream American dream) and a narrative which distinguishes our values from those of our conservative opposition.

· Our political strategy must include both offense and defense, including reframing terms misleadingly framed by Conservatives.

· Realistically promote winning liberal policies, without being sidetracked by special interests of groups within and without our Democratic Party.

· Devote ourselves to both creating a strong majority liberal climate of opinion in the long-term and winning elections in the short-term.

· Implement a 50 state, 12 months every year strategy to mobilize liberals, using the both the internet and grass roots organization.

· Emphasize values that we share, values and proposals which unite us, ways we can work together.

The following books express these strategies in more detail:

· Gary Hart, 2006, The Courage of Our Convictions, A Manifesto for Democrats

· Bill Scher, 2006, Wait! Don’t Move to Canada! A Stay-and-Fight Strategy to Win Back America

· Matthew Kerbel (ed.), 2006, Get This Party Started, How Progressives Can Fight Back and Win

· James Carville and Paul Begala, 2006, Take It Back, Our Party, Our Country, Our Future)

· Paul Waldman, 2006, Being Right Is Not Enough, What Progressives Must Learn from Conservative Success

· Jerome Armstrong and Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, 2006, Crashing the Gate, Netroots, Grassroots and the Rise of People-Centered Politics

These and other books appear in the ‘Liberal Political Strategies’ section in our list of books for liberals. Also see our Basic Training commentary ‘Back to Our Liberal Roots’.

In referring to new politics, Barack Obama emphasizes uniting us. More important than our different genders, ethnic backgrounds, faiths and other varying characteristics is that we are all Americans. We share the American Dream. To restore this shared American Dream we must all work together. To elect Liberal candidates and to provide the political support to enact Liberal legislation. He does not emphasize the term ‘Liberal’ which has been framed by conservatives to divide us. He emphasize uniting Democrats, Independents and disgruntled Republicans who share our values.

In his stump speeches, his responses during forums and reflections upon these forums, Barack Obama lampoons Old Politics of trivial attacks which divide us and promotes New Politics of unity. To many of us, he seems obviously right. But many of us still think the old politics is necessary. The major question (which our current elections will answer) is can we win by focusing on unity while lightly dismissing divisive attacks, or must we respond divisively? If the divisive responses are necessary, will they defeat our efforts to reclaim our American Dream?

Lessons from Pennsylvania– 4/25/08

Hillary Clinton won almost 10% more Pennsylvania votes than Barack Obama, gaining her only 10 delegates. This is the same percentage by which she won in the adjacent states of Ohio and New Jersey. Clinton obtained large majorities among rural and small town voters, women and less educated White men, but usually less large majorities than she did in Ohio. Obama won large majorities among Philadelphia metropolitan voters, Blacks and more educated White men.

These patterns are similar to those which have occurred in many other states, in spite of Obama’s superior grassroots organization. Obama also spent over two times as much as Clinton on TV ads. The lesson is that social factors have strong influence, which sometimes can not be overcome by campaign organization and advertising.

What is less sure is what this portends for our general elections. Clinton’s campaign will argue that in the race against John McCain, Obama will be unable to win the voters that have voted for her. For more. But in a race between two men, will the women vote for anti-women’s choice candidate McCain? Will racism among small town and rural voters lead them to vote for McCain? Will greater trust in Obama lead him to better beat McCain than Clinton could?

I believe our fall election will not be a struggle between Red and Blue states, as much as a struggle between Red and Blue areas within states. For more. For more. McCain will attract many votes in small towns and rural areas (which are often economically depressed) which contain many Libertarian White men and traditional conservatives. But in most states, a majority of voters live in suburban, urban and metropolitan areas. These (especially their Blacks and more highly educated residents) will vote strongly for Obama. It will be a nationwide contest between Liberals and Conservatives. More states will be contested than has occurred for some time, with more of them changing their color.

Obama will have many advantages. His views are more in tune with mainstream public opinion. For more. He will have more money. Through our primary and caucus contests, he has organized most states. Some Hillary supporters may default from supporting Obama. But many Republicans will default from supporting McCain.

The bottom line is not simply winning the election. It is governing afterward. If both Democratic candidates could beat McCain, which will be better able to mobilize support for opposing special interests to pass legislation to reclaim our American Dream?

Democrats for McCain? – 4/25/08

We are seeing increasing reports that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton supporters are saying that they will vote for John McCain or not vote, if their candidate fails to become the Democratic candidate. If they follow through on what they say, they are nuts.

Both Obama and Clinton will end our occupation of Iraq. John McCain will extend it. Both Obama and Clinton will take on the special interests to regulate our industries and markets, to protect us from abuse and bubbles. They will both fairly tax our people with high income and shift federal spending from special corporate interests to fund needed physical and social infrastructure and safety nets. Both will protect our civil rights, including women’s choice concerning their pregnancies. McCain will do none of these. He differs some from Bush, but not on these issues. To forsake our Liberal values is nuts.

Reverend Jeremiah Wright Describes His Perspectives– 5/2/08

At his April 27^th speech at the Detroit NAACP April 27^th Conference Reverend Jeremiah Wright revealed himself to be a pastor, theologian, linguist and multidisciplinary intellectual. View his speech (video). Also view Bill Moyer’s April 25^th PBS interview with him (video). Also read about Reverend Wright’s April 23^rd presentation at the National Press Club. These present a very different understanding of him than the one portrayed by commercial media sound bites. [I love watching a speech or hearing about it, googling it, and finding a video of it. It’s easy for you to do, to view things you missed on television, or view them again.]

Reverend Wright’s ministry includes an emphasis upon overcoming injustices against blacks. Like Martin Luther King did, he also opposes the atrocities our U.S. has committed abroad, based on ideology or protecting American corporate interests. Like Reverend Wright, I believe that when our government has directly or indirectly committed acts of terrorism against other countries, it is difficult to believe that angered others wouldn’t commit acts of terrorism against us. I was not surprised that the 9/11 attacks occurred. I was chagrined that they succeeded, due to the competence of the terrorists and the incompetence of the Bush administration.

I believe the people should hear what Reverend Wright has to say, and not just tidbits taken out of context. I believe he has every right to express his opinions, especially when he has been attacked, based on false portrayals of his beliefs. However in his passion for social justice for Blacks, Reverend Wright has gone too far, such as suggesting that the Government has promoted HIV among Blacks. He also was wrong to accuse Barack Obama of political pandering, when Obama disagreed with Reverend Wright’s provocative expression of our government’s defects. Obama correctly argues that our present emphasis should be upon overcoming racial, regional and faith differences to unite to produce the best that America can be. I doubt that Reverend Wright will cost Barack Obama very many votes that he would have otherwise obtained, not enough to cost him the presidency.

Also read a full transcript of Chris Wallace’s excellent April 27^th interview with Barack Obama on Fox Cable News. See the video. The interview dealt with racism, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, expressing patriotism, cooperating across party lines, General David Petraeus, policy differences with McCain, public campaign financing and other topics. Commercial media pundits often report that people don’t know Obama very well. Through his autobiographies and campaign, we know more about Barack Obama, his past activities and his way of thinking than we know about Hillary Clinton and John McCain. People who don’t pay attention don’t know much about any of the candidates; but they easily could.

I am also glad that Jimmy Carter has met with Hamas. He correctly asserts that no Israeli-Palestinian settlement can occur without the participation of Hamas. For more. Dave Thomas

Barack Obama on Being Tough – 5/2/08

On April 26^th in an Indiana town meeting, Barack Obama said that being tough means you don’t always have to fight. When challenged about little things, you can just walk away. You can save your fighting for the big things. See short video – near the end.

When you’re tough, you don’t have to always prove you’re tough. No matter how tough you are, you always risk having the bad luck to get beaten. Why risk it, when nothing important is involved? Why even get your hands dirty or your shirt torn?

We have all seen Western movies in which some punk (eager to obtain fame) challenges the top gunfighter. The top gunfighter tries to avoid the fight. The young punk keeps goading the top gunfighter. The young punk finally draws his gun and gets killed. Shane tried to quit fighting. But when it became important, he stood up to the gunfighter that was threatening his friend.

The challenge is to know when to fight and when to avoid it. When is the issue important enough to fight? This is complicated when public opinion says you aren’t tough unless you fight whenever challenged. Is this old politics still strong enough to force Barack Obama to fight whenever challenged? Or can he prove his toughness in other ways than continually responding to every challenge, no matter how trivial? Can he strengthen our new politics? Can he save his fighting for John McCain on the big issues that divide them? After being elected, can he focus his fighting on the wealthy and powerful interests which resist the reclaiming of our American Dream?

Tough people, whether abusers or defenders of the abused (who may themselves become abusers), don’t just go it alone. No matter how tough, they typically seek assistance. Most dramatically, they don’t obtain it and must fight alone. The movies, Shane and High Noon are examples.

The answer to these questions is not just a test of Barack Obama. It is a test of all of us. Will we ignore or devalue the trivial attacks? Will we direct our toughness to join Barack Obama in the important struggles? If we don’t, it will be we who suffer. Only through being united, can we be tough enough for the struggle to come.

I respect John McCain for opposing the North Carolina swift boat attack ads. Unfortunately, they will air anyway and more will come. I hope John McCain will continue to disparage them, lowering their influence.

It’s Time to Unify Our Democratic Party – 5/9/08

Barack Obama will be our Democratic presidential nominee. For more. Hillary Clinton was unlucky to have to compete with Barack Obama. It would be nice for a woman to become president. But not this time. Hopefully soon.

Now is the time to unify our party. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will lead our unified efforts to beat John McCain. I don’t believe either Obama or Clinton would be happy with Clinton as vice-president. But she should be offered some important position, perhaps United States delegate to our United Nations.

I think Al Gore would make a great vice-president, with a mandate to work together with Hillary Clinton to lead our international community’s response to climate change and to restore our international standing. Hopefully they could also lead the way toward empowering the United Nations to deal effectively with situations like the Congo, Darfur, Myanmar and North Korea.

I also recommend John Edwards for Attorney General, Arnold Schwarzenegger for head of Homeland Security and Michael Bloomberg for Housing and Urban Development. Maybe Ron Paul for a position to protect our civil liberties.

Barack Obama must first defeat John McCain. I believe the race will be something like the 1996 race between Bill Clinton and Robert Doyle. Notice the many advantages that Obama will have:

· Most voters are disgusted with President Bush, the Republican party, and Christian Conservatives.

· Many Traditional Conservatives, Christian Conservatives and Libertarians are disgruntled.

· Both our occupation of Iraq and our economy are doing poorly.

· Obama is much more personally attractive than McCain. Watch their performance in debates.

· The difficult race against Clinton has prepared Obama for the easier race against McCain.

· There may be few bases for negative attacks against Obama, beyond the ones that Republicans and Clinton have already made unsuccessfully.

· Obama has demonstrated an ability to respond effectively to negative attacks and pandering.

· In most states, many more voters are registered as Democrats than as Republicans.

· Obama has attracted young voters, Independents and disgruntled Republicans. For more.

· Obama and our Democrats have much more money than McCain and the Republicans.

· Obama has built a campaign organization in every state.

· Hopefully the Obama organization, Democratic party organizations and other Democratic candidates will run effective unified campaigns.

Notice that while the Commercial media continually discuss divisions between Obama and Clinton supporters, they give little attention to the many Republican voters who are still voting for Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul instead of John McCain. For more. See opposition research on McCain.

Several obstacles could be racism among rural small town Democrats and women who are disgruntled that Clinton didn’t become the nominee. I don’t believe these people will vote for McCain in large enough numbers to elect him. Dave Thomas

Superdelegates Are Not a Problem– 5/16/08

Our commercial media pundits have continually suggested that superdelegates may support Hillary Clinton, in opposition to the majority of voters, states and pledged delegates which have supported Barack Obama. Many more superdelegates endorsed Clinton when she was the front runner. But since super Tuesday, as Obama has won a majority of primary and caucus votes, he has been steadily obtaining more endorsements from superdelegates than Clinton. He now has more superdelegate endorsements than Clinton and his lead is increasing. With John Edwards endorsement, he Obama may obtain most of Edwards’ 19 delegates. To end the prolonged competition, superdelegates may soon rush to support Obama. This trend has been obvious, even as the pundits have hypothesized and obsessed with the opposite. Just one more reason to distrust the pundits and their dramatic mythologies which they substitute for more expensive research and coverage of real issues. For more.

The pundits may also be wrong to believe that John McCain’s supporters will effectively attack Obama. Clinton’s attacks have not been extreme and he has responded well and effectively. Conservatives may find it as difficult to attack Obama as Clinton has. And his response to Clinton’s attacks may have inoculated him against any more extreme attacks from McCain supporters. He may be able to respond, “There you go again.” Or humorously “Here comes more ropey-doak old politics.” Our voters may respond well to such responses, as they have to his similar responses during our primaries.

If you find yourself misled by all the pundits attempts to make drama of trivia and by their wrong assumptions, think about how you can improve your own priorities and assumptions. How can you become better informed? I hope our website and newsletter are helpful. Although I sometimes go astray. I sure didn’t understand the difference the Republicans’ winner take all and our Democratic proportional selection primaries would make for quickly choosing a winner. Dave Thomas

Barack Obama’s Immense Campaign Resources – 5/16/08

Barack Obama has an attractive persona and is effective with both his speeches and face-to-face interaction. He has inspired people, while presenting few targets for those who would attack him. He responds well to the attacks that are made. Note that three Democrats that Republicans linked to Obama recently won congressional seats long held by Republican.

More important for electing not only himself, but also other Democrats, Barack Obama may have built the strongest presidential campaign ever. This includes:

For more.

After Super Tuesday Obama’s political strategists predicted every primary outcome except one.

Hopefully the Obama organization, Democratic party organizations and other Democratic candidates will run effective unified campaigns. This will help build the unity that will be needed after the election to pass legislation. Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton ran their campaigns separately from the Democratic party and never secured the cooperation of congress members. Obama opposes our Old Politics, but he is not running as a Washington outsider as Carter and Clinton did. See also our commentary below, comparing Barack Obama’s and Ronald Reagan’s political approach.

Earlier, I suggested that Barack Obama might appoint Hillary Clinton delegate to the United Nations. Another possible appointment would be secretary of Health and Human Services, although she sure botched her 1993 health proposal. While I prefer Al Gore for vice president and John Edwards possibly for Attorney General, my next choice would be John Edwards for vice president. Dave Thomas

Winning Campaign Strategies for Barack Obama – 5/30/08

I recommend that all candidates should use the following campaign strategies. I believe that Barack Obama will use them as he campaigns against John McCain, much as he has done against Hillary Clinton.

Maintain the discipline to know what is important and what isn’t.

What is important is your values and your opponent’s obstruction of their realization. Don’t be distracted by less important issues. For example, don’t respond to a rumor or trivial attack which most people don’t know about or believe. It will only make it an issue in many people’s mind. Only if it becomes public and begins to have credibility, should you act strongly to refute it. Perhaps by refuting it, or perhaps by humor which emphasizes its ridiculousness.

Many candidates, especially inexperienced ones, are super sensitive to real and imagined attacks. They fail to have this discipline. Their opponents are able to distract them from their main message. They spend their time on the defensive, which publicizes their possible failings.

Everything begins with your values.

What is important are your values. They (coupled with the situation) are the basis of everything you do. Begin every discourse by a brief reference to your values. Notice how Obama, after acknowledging the audience, talks about the urgency of changing from the mess that the Republicans have created. Obama correctly assumes that most of us know what needs to be changed. Obama’s primary value is making needed changes though first uniting us toward realistic understanding and effective political action.

Obama’s values are opposed to the values which motivate the Republicans. He is for hope instead of fear. He is for a new politics which expresses realities, instead of simply pandering. He refuses to suggest that change will come easy. That all that is needed are quick fixes. He keeps us focused upon what is important.

Keep your opponent on the defense. Play in his or her court.

Point out where your opponent is wrong. Where he or she is obstructing our values. Keep your attacks credible by citing specific evidence. Fight fair. Don’t base your attacks on excerpts from your opponents commentaries taken out of context. Don’t attack your opponent personally. Only attack his or her statements and actions which express negative values in opposition to your own.

Concentrate your attacks, making one point before shifting to another one. Don’t make so many attacks at once, that each one gets lost in the mixture. Treat your attacks as experimental probes. If one resonates, hammer it home. If it doesn’t, quietly move on to something else.

Pick your attacks to keep your opponent off guard. An unexpected and unanticipated attack works best because your opponent is not ready to respond. Like a poker player or a general, you must bluff or feint with little probes, confusing your opponent about where the main attack will come.

You must also anticipate what attacks your opponent will make. Sometimes you can prevent them by avoiding providing targets. Or by fortifying what might be a target with clarification and supporting facts. Be ready to dismiss minor attacks and respond strongly to major ones. Sometimes you may even want to tempt your opponent to attack, when you know you can win the encounter.

Offer narratives and solutions, not proposals.

Like Reagan did, Obama frequently offers narratives and solutions. He tells the story of particular persons he has met, their suffering and what the solution must be. He commits himself to providing the solution, without making detailed proposals for how the solution will be realized. Most people emphasize with suffering people and can agree with the solution. Only us few policy wonks can understand detailed proposals, and then we focus on details for which we have alternatives.

Obtaining solutions depends upon the situation the official will face, so specific proposals made before elections are seldom exactly what is needed afterward. Don’t make promises to implement proposals that later you can’t or shouldn’t keep.

Be a Happy Warrior. Not a Whiny Victim.

One of Obama’s best campaign assets is his continual presentation as a Happy Warrior. Even when under attack, he has seldom whined about being a victim. His most likely response is just to say that’s politics. That’s old politics. That’s to be expected.

And then he responds as a happy warrior. He defends himself as necessary and resumes his attack. Barack Obama follows all of these campaign strategies. As did Ronald Reagan very effectively. As a candidate, you should follow them also. Study successful campaigners as role models. Learn from them what works and doesn’t. What you should and shouldn’t do. What is important and unimportant. Assuming you are Liberal, my best wishes are with you. Dave Thomas

State Opinion Polls Favorable to Presumed Nominee Barack Obama – 5/30/08

With two candidates for Democratic presidential nomination, polls often showed that John McCain is competitive with both. Now that Barack Obama is the presumed nominee, public opinion polls now favor him over John McCain in CO, MO, NH, OH, OR, PA and VA. He is favored by even stronger margins in various states with large numbers of electoral votes, such as California, New York and Illinois. Depending upon the effectiveness of Obama’s campaign, the disgruntlement of Republican voters and the turnout of voters, many other states will be in play.

Obama can count on many safe Democratic states, while threatening many formerly Republican states. Republicans will be forced to spend much of their limited money on defending states they previously won, leaving less for swing states. Democrats will be able to direct their much greater amounts of money to both swing states and attacking formerly Republican ones. Howard Dean’s and Barack Obama’s fifty state strategy is paying off big-time.

Contesting so many states will also result in victories for Democratic congressional candidates, as has already occurred in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi races. Barack Obama will have long coat tails, extending to state governors and legislators. Congress members who benefit from Obama’s race will often express their appreciation by supporting with his legislative proposals. These congress members will also be influenced by mobilized Obama supporters. Unlike Presidents Carter and Clinton who ran independently of other Democratic candidates and had short coat tails, Obama will benefit greatly from his better relations and cooperation with congress members.

Hopefully Obama can provide a role model for legislators in refusing to pander to special interests and unwise conventional wisdom. With strong backbones, they can change the conventional wisdom and overcome the special interests. With Republicans increasingly a southern regional cult, unity among Democrats will be gradually replaced by struggles between consistent Liberals and those more willing to compromise. Interesting times lie ahead, but more optimistic ones than what we have experienced during our National Nightmare. Yes we can restore our American Dream.

Achieving Unity among Democrats – 6/6/08

View Barack Obama’s victory speech (video).

Barack Obama has run perhaps the most effective campaign that any Democrat has ever run. If he hadn’t run, Hillary Clinton would surely have won. More than any missteps, she was simply unlucky to have such competition. If Democrats had a winner-take-all primary system, she would have won. Like many people, I will be glad to see a person with African blood become president. Also like many people, I would have been glad to see a woman become president. I won’t go so far as to suggest that Barack Obama have a sex change operation, so that we can have both. Hopefully it won’t be very many elections until we will elect a woman to be our president.

Our commercial media pundits have long pestered us with fantastic mythologies concerning how our Democrats would fail to achieve unity. Thus losing to the Republicans. They suggested that Democratic superdelegates would give their support to Hillary Clinton in opposition to the support of Barack Obama by pledged delegates from our primaries and caucuses, causing disillusionment to many of our voters. Early pledged delegates did favor Clinton when she appeared the likely winner. But ever since Super Tuesday, most previously uncommitted pledged delegates have favored Obama instead of Clinton. For more on commercial media mythologies.

Our commercial media pundits have also pestered us with the fantasy that our Democrats would be unable to find a non-divisive way to allocate delegates from Florida and Michigan, perhaps giving them all to Clinton. In fact, our Democrats easily arrived at a solution which satisfies the Florida and Michigan Democratic party organizations and almost everyone else. They gave each state half of the delegate votes they would have had if they had followed party rules, with more delegates allocated to Clinton than Obama. Only Harold Ickes, Jr. and a few other Clinton supporters who wanted Clinton to get all the delegates remained disgruntled. Maybe more than a few. For more.

Hillary Clinton will surely lead her supporters to work in unity with Obama to win this fall over John McCain. Otherwise, she would destroy her future in the Democratic Party. I can’t imagine that she would risk becoming another Joe Lieberman. I expect the most united Democratic campaign we have seen since before John Kennedy ran with his own campaign organization and little coordination with our Democratic Party organization. Obama has a strong 50-state campaign organization, which I expect will work closely with the Democratic Party organization (and Clinton’s campaign organization) to elect not only Obama, but many other national and state candidates, who will need to work together after the election to reclaim our American Dream.

I expect the irritations (that many of us, who have supported Obama or Clinton, have felt at the actions of the competing campaign) will fade. Notice that the two campaigns have been quite civil compared to those of many other competitors. Both candidates have let some comments slip that they have regretted. There has been some attempts to suggest guilt by association. A few campaign supporters have made unjustified attacks. Especially as time goes on, we should develop new perspectives which regard these irritations as trivial compared with the serious consequences if we allow John McCain to win. See also the commentary on reconciliation below.

I believe that John McCain and the Republicans will find it much more difficult to achieve unity than will Barack Obama and the Democrats. Traditional Republicans, Libertarians, Christian Conservatives and New Republicans are all uneasy with various of John McCain’s past and present policies. The Libertarian Party may win enough votes to swing some states to our Democrats.

Another new fantasy scenario is emerging from our commercial media pundits: Watch Hillary Clinton bargain with Barack Obama to get what she wants. For Hillary to threaten to withhold her support in any way is like committing political suicide. It like holding a gun to her head and threatening to shoot if she doesn’t get her way. I doubt that she can bluff Barack Obama even if she wanted to. I don’t think we will see any bargaining.

I just encountered a suggestion that Barack Obama should appoint Hillary Clinton to the Supreme Court. I think it’s a great idea. Let’s hope a position opens up soon. Better if she can replace a Conservative. Best if she can replace our chief justice.

Another failing of the commercial media pundits. They seldom look ahead more than a week or a month. Beyond winning the presidency, the big issue for Barack Obama is: How will he govern with the congress after winning? How does he run his election campaign to add to the good congressional relations that he already has? I doubt the pundits will address these issues for some time. But I am confident that the Obama campaign is making them a high priority. Dave Thomas

How Many Voters Voted for Our Various Candidates? – 6/6/08

Our Democratic presidential nominee will be selected by our delegates. But questions have been raised about which candidate received the most votes from Democrats. That is very difficult to answer without a series of assumptions about primary voters and caucus attendees. About open primaries and caucuses in which not only Democrats, but also Independents and even Republicans could vote. Look at the following ways in which our various states conducted different selection processes:

· Open Caucuses (Democrats, Republicans and Independents allowed)

· Modified Caucuses (Democrats and Independents)

· Closed Caucuses (Democrats only)

· Open Primaries (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents allowed)

· Modified Primaries (Democrats and Independents)

· Closed Primaries (Democrats only)

· Mixture of open caucuses and open primaries (i.e. Texas)

For example, in Washington we had both caucuses and a primary. Both were essentially open, since anyone could indicate that he or she was a Democrat when participating, whatever their identification before and after. Many primary votes were not counted because the voters forgot to check a box that they were Democrats. Most who participated in a caucus also voted in the primary. So do we count some people who voted in the primary not at all, while we count twice those who participated in a caucus and the primary? How many of those who participated or voted aren’t really Democrats?

Merging the Obama, Clinton and Party Campaigns – 6/13/08

Political campaigns are necessarily secretive. So we are unlikely to learn how the Obama, Clinton and Democratic Campaigns are merged. At least in any detail. Howard Dean is being kept as party chairman because both he and the Obama campaigns believe in a 50-state permanent full court press strategy. By campaigning in red states, they get to play in the Republican end of the court, forcing Republicans to spend resources there which would otherwise be used to campaign in Blue and swing states. The other Democratic Party campaign staff will largely be replaced by people chosen by the Obama campaign.

Apart from the differing loyalties of various participants, the major difficulty may be the differing campaign cultures of the Obama and Clinton campaigns. I perceive that Obama’s campaign has been much more horizontal and bottom-up than Clinton’s campaign.

I speculate that Clinton’s grass roots effort will be merged with Obama’s grass roots effort to produce organizing centers throughout each of our 50 states. I speculate that Clinton’s publicity organization will be dismantled, with only a few staff recruited by Obama’s publicity organization which has a very different focus. Obama’s publicity focuses upon change and McCain’s obstruction, instead of focusing upon Obama himself.

While the database of volunteers and contributors will be merged, the fund raisers may be partially kept separately with some focusing on original Obama supporters and others focusing on original Clinton supporters. Some of this may be legally required as funds are raised to pay of Clinton campaign debts. Many lobbyists associated with the Clinton campaign may find their roles greatly limited.

Since the Obama volunteer organization is much different and more effective than the Clinton volunteer organization, I expect that the latter would be largely melded into the former. There may be some segmentation according to different types of volunteers according to age, race and gender due to the different audiences they will seek to identify, attract and influence.

All of this is speculative. I would like to obtain the commentaries of some of you who have more experience inside campaigns than I have. Dave Thomas

Post Mortems on Hillary Clinton’s Campaign – 6/13/08

Last week, I suggested that Hillary Clinton lost the election because she was unlucky that the Democratic primaries were not winner-take-all and that she had to compete with perhaps the best campaigns that any Democrat has conducted. The following commentaries suggest what she had to do to improve her campaign.

I do not include these post mortems to denigrate Clinton in any way. She ran a very effective campaign compared to everyone else but Obama. I include these post mortems to inform us about the many aspects of waging an effective campaign. Dave Thomas

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/8/194537/8886/484/532426

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/8/165745/9389/545/532357

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/8/164943/5052/737/531148

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/8/131639/1984/973/531953

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/8/9265/90943/788/532122

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/8/1420/51685/875/532043

Our Democrats Finally Get It. Repetition. Repetition. – 6/13/08

For the next 5 months, we will repeatedly hear “John McSame, a Third Term for President Bush”. John McCain differs from President Bush on a few issues. But on highly visible major issues: Continuing to occupy Iraq. Maintaining tax cuts for the rich. Allowing deregulated competition for providing health care and other services. Letting people cope with stagflation by themselves without government support. John McCain mirrors President Bush. John McSame, a Third Term for President Bush. John McSame, a Third Term for President Bush. John McSame, a Third Term for President Bush.

John McCain must run both with President Bush to hold Conservatives. And against President Bush to appeal to mainstream American voters. Such schizophrenia is difficult to market. John McSame, a Third Term for President Bush. John McSame, a Third Term for President Bush. John McSame, a Third Term for President Bush. It’s childish. But it works. Try it on any wavering Liberals or Conservatives you encounter.

Barack Obama Is Already Moving Ahead of John McCain – 6/20/08

Barack Obama is leading McCain in the polls. Especially among women, many of whom supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. As more pro-choice women who now support John McCain become aware of McCain’s opposition to Roe vs. Wade, they can be expected to switch their support from McCain to Obama. For more. For more. For more.

Barack Obama’s growing lead is downplayed in our commercial media, because they depend upon a tight race for the drama that attracts their audience to their advertisements. This is the true commercial media bias. Not Liberal or Conservative, so much as favoring whatever stories help their service to advertisers.

Besides Barack Obama’s campaign grass roots organizations in all 50 states, 3600 additional grass roots organizers have been trained and sent to 17 contested states. For more. John McCain’s grass roots organization hardly exists. Remember that early on, Barack Obama was far behind Hillary Clinton in the polls. Obama’s superior grass roots organization did not show up in the polls until just before the Iowa caucuses. Similarly, present grass roots organizing may not show up in the polls until it focuses upon getting out the vote just before our November elections. As occurred in the Iowa caucuses, this will be the Obama shock and awe of our general election. About another GOTV effort.

Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic than Republican voters. Unlike Obama, John McCain is the one having difficulty uniting his party. Some Conservatives are supporting Barack Obama. They are called Obamacons. And McCain and his allies will have far less money to promote his cause. I believe that McCain will largely avoid unfair personal attack ads. But his allies will not be so inhibited. We can hope that our public has become less subject to influence by unfair personal attack ads. The Obama campaign has shown that it will respond immediately to any which threaten to gain influence.

Polls show Barack Obama ahead in Pennsylvania (12%), Ohio (6%) and Florida (4%). For more. For more. For more. I predict that he will win all the states that Kerry won in 2004. I believe he will win many of the states where Democratic gubernatorial and Senate candidates won in 2006. I expect him to sweep the New England States and the Ohio Valley; win Virginia; win Florida; win Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Kansas; and win Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. I may be wrong in a few of these states; but he could also win in North Carolina and another southern state or several. Racism will be the major obstacle to winning the remaining states. My projections are more optimistic than the NCEC and other Democratic organizations; but we are all subject to paranoia resulting from the 2000 and 2004 elections. An implication of my projections is that Obama will not need to choose a vice presidential candidate based upon the candidate’s influence on the election in his or her state. Use this map to make your own projections.

Finally, Some Others Are Thinking About Al Gore for Vice President – 6/20/08

Al Hunt commentary appearing in Bloomberg.Com: ‘It's not any easier predicting Obama's choice. Ten days ago, when Democratic polltaker Peter Hart suggested Gore, it seemed fun, the flavor du jour. The more one thinks about it, the more appealing it seems.

Presidential Persuasion

Democratic strategist James Carville, who ran Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, the only successful Democratic presidential insurgency in the past three decades, embraces Gore with an important added element: make him the energy czar as well, with a charge to cut American dependence on foreign oil by 25 percent in 10 years with everything on the table.

Everyone says Gore wouldn't want it. They're right, so it would take powers of presidential persuasion to change his mind.” Al Hunt For more.

I would charge Al Gore to lead an international response to global warming, and also restore our reputation abroad. Dave Thomas

Progressive Majority Is What We Need Now – 6/20/08

As the main national organization dedicated to recruiting, training and electing progressive candidates at the state and local levels, Progressive Majority is building a progressive infrastructure from the ground up, and it's working. Since fielding our first slate of candidates in 2004, Progressive Majority has:

1. Elected 272 progressives to state legislative, county and/or municipal offices in key swing states.

2. Flipped control of four state legislatures and 30 local governments.

3. Actively recruited women, people of color, people under 35, union members, and members of the GLBT community to run for office and build a strong progressive base that looks like America.

Now that the presidential primaries are over, it's time to refocus on those critical state and local races that truly make a difference in the lives of hardworking Americans. It's time to ensure that the progressive agenda of economic justice, civil rights, a sustainable environment, reproductive freedom, quality health care and education is reality.

Please help Progressive Majority promote these values and build a brighter future for all Americans by becoming a Partner in Progress today.

I include this pitch from Progressive Majority, because with the Democrats expected to win a large congressional majority, rendering the Republicans a consistently Conservative Southern cult, our priority should be rendering the Democratic party more consistently Liberal. Progressive Majority can play a major role by stimulating a farm team of consistent Liberals and running consistent Liberals in primary races against inconsistently Liberal incumbent Democrats.

Democracy for America is also promoting Liberal candidates, some of whom are opposing incumbent Bush-Democrats. Dave Thomas

Obama Campaign Reports on Campaign Financing and Advertising – 6/27/08

Excerpted from an email from Obama’s campaign

Since we announced our decision not to accept taxpayer funds for the general election, tens of thousands of people like you have come forward to declare their independence from a broken system.

This decision frees us to build a movement of millions of people giving whatever they can afford to a campaign that is truly reforming the way our political process works. It also frees us to take our campaign for change to parts of the country where Democratic presidential candidates haven't spent too much time in the past.

Our first television ad of the general election season goes on the air today. Sure, we're on the air in places like Ohio and Florida, the typical battleground states. But we're also on the air in North Dakota, Montana, and Alaska -- places that have emerged as competitive because of the unprecedented grassroots energy supporting our campaign. These ads are supporting a 50-state ground operation that is being built right now by staff, volunteers, and thousands of Obama Organizing Fellows. Barack

I have mixed reactions to Barack Obama’s decision to use private instead of public financing. I have strongly supported eliminating private financing of campaigns due to the corruption that results. I find it difficult to believe that candidates can ignore the requests of people who contribute large sums of money to their campaigns or other causes.

I am glad that Barack Obama has refused to take money from lobbyists. I think he should also refuse money delivered by bundlers. I don’t believe his large numbers of small contributors pose any temptation for him to serve private interests instead of public interests. Involving over a million people in his campaign as volunteers and contributors is a good thing.

I believe it is very important that Barack Obama win and having more money raised through private contributions will help. The real test of my principles is what would I think if the situation was reversed. What if John McCain was raising more money though huge numbers of small contributors and Obama wasn’t? I don’t believe that with his campaign, John McCain could do so. But if his campaign was different and he did so, I think my opinion would be the same as it is with Obama now. I would say it is OK for him to forego public financing. My opposition is to contributors who make large contributions, especially those who are fronted by lobbyists. Dave Thomas

The Obama Campaign and Others Are Getting Out the Vote – 6/27/08

Of the 180 million potential U.S. voters, about 1/3^rd (64 million) are not registered. During the primaries, the Obama campaign emphasized identifying new Democrats. 200,000 were identified in Pennsylvania, 165,000 in North Carolina, and 150,000 in Indiana.

As reported last week, The Obama campaign has trained 3600 additional grass roots organizers and sent them to 17 contested states. Using micro-targeting information, they are identifying likely Democratic voters, registering those who aren’t registered and preparing to get them to vote in November. To varying extents, this activity is occurring in all 50 states. For more.

Project Vote (working with ACORN) conducts canvassing in low-income urban neighborhoods. It registered more than 1 million voters in the last 2 election cycles and has set a goal of 1.2 million for this one. Rock the Vote which focuses upon registering young people, has stimulated them to download 600,000 registration forms, with perhaps 2 million possible. Other efforts are directed toward Hispanic and African American voters. For more.

Questions for Barack Obama and John McCain – 6/27/08

· What is necessary to correct such situations as Darfur, Myanmar, and Zimbabwe in which authorities abuse their own people? What international response is needed? What role should the U.S. play? Especially, what role should we play in making an appropriate international response possible?

· Our largely unregulated financial industries, which have grown to 20% of our economy, have caused repeated bubbles and collapses, including the S & L, Enron, dot.com and housing mortgage ones. What should we do to prevent these cycles of private excess and public bail out?

· With the global peak in oil and gas production and increasing demand, oil and gas prices will continue to increase, rendering our current wasteful consumptive suburban lifestyle untenable. In the short run and maybe even in the longer run, conservation and implementation of alternative energy sources will not prevent large cost increases in goods made from oil and gas, transportation, and transported goods, diverting money that is now spent upon other goods and services. What should be done to mitigate or ease the adjustments that must be made?

· With global warming, failing aquifers, and increased farming (fertilizer, tractor, pumping, etc.) costs, our food shortages will cause increased food costs and starvation among poor people. How should our United States government respond to this crisis. Given our own difficulties, can we maintain the will to respond to needs abroad?

Local Barack Obama ‘Unite for Change’ Gatherings – 7/4/08

The Barack Obama campaign organization has brought 40 or more trained staffers to work with our Washington State coordinated campaign, primarily doing grass roots organizing. We may have at least three times as many coordinated campaign staff as three years ago. And unlike previously, the emphasis is upon grassroots organizing: finding, training and deploying volunteers to identify likely Democratic voters, register unregistered ones, keep them informed, and get them to vote.

I participated in two ‘United for Change’ gatherings of many which were held this week throughout our Puget Sound and across the country. Each gathering was lead by two staffers, who indicated the need for and signed up volunteers, answered questions about the campaign and allowed time for participants to interact and talk politics. I was impressed that many like me, were first supporters of John Edwards, and that many others were first supporters of Hillary Clinton. I was also impressed at the way the staffers honored the participants, their questions, ideas and suggestions. One of the major problems in 2006 was that many volunteers and contributors felt that the coordinated campaign staff treated them with contempt as rank amateurs with nothing to offer.

I was also impressed that the participants were already divided between optimists and pessimists concerning the extent to which we can eliminate the opposition of special corporate interests to reclaiming our American Dream. There is also a division between those of us who want to hold out for perfection and those of us who will accept progress. For more. We live in interesting times, about to get even more interesting. Some lessons we need to learn and apply.

I believe gatherings such as these are producing an outpouring of volunteers for registering, canvassing, phoning, hosting, and more. Much more than I have ever seen here before. I believe that one of the great benefits for Washington State Democrats of the Barack Obama candidacy is that we may better appreciate grassroots organizing and learn how to do it. Our Democratic Party may be able to help our candidates to win, instead of our candidates having to do almost all of the grass roots organizing on their own. And this is happening throughout our country.

As I have long emphasized (and tried to practice in our Lake Hills neighborhood), a truly coordinated campaign of our Democratic Party organization and all of our candidates is enormously more efficient and effective than each candidate having to campaign alone. Hopefully this coordinated campaign will also lead to more coordination among our officials after they are elected. I envision a future with close coordination between our voters, our candidates and our Democratic Party.

Our great series of Democratic primaries with the dramatic race between Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and others really kicked off our grassroots organizing. For more. For all that Karl Rove did excellent grassroots organizing in Ohio, Florida and other important states in 2004, I believe that John McCain has virtually no grassroots campaign. Instead of grassroots organizing, McCain is campaigning in Columbia, South America. For more. I believe that across the country, Democrats are organizing at the local level better than the Republicans. I hope this will lead to the demise of the Republican Party as an influential political actor. No more Republicans. Yes we can. Dave Thomas

Barack Obama on Campaign Organizing and Funding – 7/4/08

Excerpt from fundraising email

“Together we are setting a new standard for how presidential campaigns will be organized and funded. For the first time in a generation, a presidential campaign is putting staff in every single state for the general election. Our staff and the Obama Organizing Fellows are getting to work right now to build on grassroots energy in all 50 states.

And -- unlike John McCain -- we're going to do it without contributions from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs that have held too much power for far too long in this country. By putting our organizational and financial future in your hands, it's clear who will be responsible for our success and who we will be accountable to in the White House: the people.” Barack Obama

Another Barack Obama campaign email included:

It's been less than four weeks since Barack became the presumptive Democratic nominee, and here's what supporters like you have already made possible:

· Staff and offices in 21 states

· 134 campaign offices open across the country

· Nearly 1,000 field staff on the ground, supported by more than 3,500 Obama Organizing Fellows

And we are literally growing every day. For more (video).

It’s Tough to Run a Schizophrenic Campaign – 7/4/08

Poor John McCain. He has to convince Conservatives that he’s a true believer in Bush’s policies. He has to convince the rest of us that he is a maverick. It’s tough to run a schizophrenic campaign. He runs the risk that Conservatives will think he is a maverick. While the rest of us will think he’s John McSame running for a third Bush term.

To really cement himself with Conservatives, McCain should choose Dick Cheney as his Vice President.

Gerrymandering Now Works against Republicans – 7/4/08

The Republicans gerrymandered our congressional districts to pack Democrats into a few districts, leaving Republicans to dominate many districts by a small margin. This has now turned against them. With public abhorrence of President Bush and the Republicans, many of the safe Republican seats don’t have enough cushion to protect their incumbents. Democrats are posed to make big gains. For more. For more. For more.

Are Democrats Wimps? – 7/11/08

Yes. If we are considering the period from 1969 to 2005. Most Democrats failed to strongly express their Liberal values. Most believed that they should not attack Republicans. Many were afraid to obstruct Republican tax cut, war-making, environmental-harming, safety net-cutting legislation. This is well documented by Glenn Hurowitz in his 2007 book, Fear and Courage in the Democratic Party.

As Glenn Hurowitz shows, voters will often support candidates with whom they disagree on issues, if the candidates demonstrate the courage of their convictions. Examples include Jesse Ventura, John McCain (when he was a maverick), Bernie Sanders, Russ Feingold, Jon Testor and various red state Democrats who won elections through strongly expressing their convictions. Conciliatory Bill Clinton and Tom Daschle presided over a major erosion of the Democratic party’s electoral success and congressional power.

Democrats have done better since 2006. But failing to stand up to Bush on our occupation of Iraq, on FISA and other issues have seriously undermined respect by both Liberals and Conservatives for our Democratically controlled congress,. A large victory in this fall’s elections will hopefully restore Democratic courage. But Liberals are already worried that Barack Obama is unnecessarily compromising his principles. Many of these Liberals are participants in Obama’s grass roots New Politics movement. His own movement colleagues may be the major force which keeps him true to his principles. Just as he has said he wanted. For more.

Politics is like Football – 7/11/08

In football, it is best to play on the other team’s side of the field. Threatening their goalpost. Keeping them on the defensive. So it is in politics. After expressing our values, we should attack their obstruction of our values. We should force them to spend their time and effort defending themselves instead of attacking us.

In football, there is a passing game and a ground game. In politics, I imagine that mass media advertising is more like a passing game. It throws out the ball, which may be well received, or be dropped (ignored) or be intercepted (when the advertisement becomes an embarrassing target for a counterattack. Using the internet in a top down fashion as many organizations (such as MoveOn) do with their email lists, is similar to mass media advertising. Except being private, email lists offer less target for counterattacks.

I imagine grassroots organizing to be similar to a running game. A large number of players reach out to involve previously uninvolved voters. It creates a potential attack on many fronts. In 2004, Howard Dean pioneered using the internet to assist his fans to organize themselves locally. Barack Obama’s campaign (now extended to the Democratic Party’s campaign) has perfected the use of the internet to enable grass roots organizing. Using all of our talents, we are conducting a diversified offense, against which the Republicans cannot defend.

Thankfully, our Obama campaign has the resources and expertise to both advertise in our commercial media and use the internet to do grassroots organizing, all part of a coordinated campaign which is extremely difficult for the Republicans to attack or defend against. Notice that Obama has expressed his values and then continually attacked McCain for supporting Bush’s agenda (not a maverick). The result: When McCain is not barbecuing at home or visiting South America, he is spending much of his time, defending himself.

Obama’s campaign has Conservatives really confused. Some say he’s the most Liberal Senator. Some say he’s become moderate. Some say he doesn’t have any substance. Now Karl Rove is saying “Okay, Obama's doing better than I said he would. But if he is, it's only because his campaign stole all my ideas. But the joke's on Democrats, because in the end he's really Richard Nixon. For more.

I noted that Phyllis Huster is playing offense. Now we see that Christine Gregoire is also playing offense. See her don’tknowdino.com website. Let’s hope that many of our Liberal candidates create such websites, especially Darcy Burner and the opponents of our Eastern Washington Republican congress members.

Obama Watch: Perfection or Progress – 7/18/08

I expect that Barack Obama will win big, with large coattails to elect many additional Democratic congressional members and state and local officials. For more. I expect the remaining very Conservative Democrats will constitute a mainly Southern regional cult. Told by an Idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing (quote from William Shakespeare’s Macbeth).

Our Obama administration will face our three crises (surging fuel prices, collapsing home values and credit, and global warming. And other difficulties. Some unpredictable, such as weather caused catastrophes. Expectations will be high. As they were in 2007 when Democrats took control of congress. Some changes will be easy and quick. Many others changes will be difficult and slow. Some will involve compromises.

As has occurred with Liberal responses to our Democratically controlled congress since 2006, I expect that many Liberals will be disgruntled. We will have many arguments between our purists who demand perfection and our pragmatists who will take what progress they can obtain.

We Liberals agree about our basic values. We often disagree about the best strategies for realizing our values. Those of us who aren’t legislators or executive branch decision makers can afford to be purists. Those of us who are legislators or other political decision makers realize that to accomplish anything, compromise is often necessary. Our differences concerning perfection and progress will be interesting. They are also a helpful (even vital) part of our democracy. They help to guide us through our uncertainties.

With Conservatives driven to backwater swamps, we will see heated discussions between Liberal purists and pragmatists. These are good debates to have. Thanks to the New Politics which Barack Obama has stimulated, which allows passionate and active Liberals to organize from the bottom-up, their views will serve as a check upon Barack Obama and our congress members. If our leaders veer too far toward one extreme or the other, they will generate strong opposition.

How different from the Old Politics which has prevailed during the Bush presidency. The Republicans in lockstep gave Bush knee jerk support for all of his abuses. Obama has created a grassroots dynamic which will hold him accountable. For more.

After the last two presidential elections and the eight years of the Bush presidency, it is easy to understand why some Liberals have become pessimists. Even paranoid. I recently encountered a pessimistic Liberal, who believed that the Republicans would steal the election. That all of the Democratic politicians including Barack Obama are simply old style politicians who would do whatever it takes to get elected. That if elected, Barack Obama wouldn’t try to make the changes he talks about.

I am an optimist, who believes that my pessimistic Liberal friend is wrong on all three. I may be wrong as I have been before. But I am excited about the possibility of Reclaiming Our American Dream. I will work to ensure that we do.

Our commercial media has given much attention to whether Obama may have flip flopped or gone Conservative on some issues. They have given much less attention to a series of mistakes that John McCain made this week.

Barack Obama has Conservatives confused. They say he is the most Liberal senator. They say he doesn’t have any positions. They say he is veering to the right. These seem inconsistent to me. Don’t some of the Conservative attacks cancel out others? Let them waste their time, trying to denigrate inconsistent images of Obama. While they are doing that, we can continue our grass roots organizing.

Conservatives also say that people don’t know Barack Obama, either his political positions or his character. In fact, Barack Obama has probably revealed his character in his two autobiographies and in his reflective campaign speeches better than almost any other politician has done. And his political positions have been presented more comprehensively than most candidates do. Go to his campaign website. To learn of his economic policies, read John Talbott’s 2008 book, Obamanomics, How Bottom-Up Economic Prosperity Will Replace Trickle-Down Economics.

New Politics vs. Old Politics – 7/18/08

In his 2008 book, The Uprising, An Unauthorized Tour of the Populist Revolt Scaring Wall Street and Washington, David Sirota doesn’t use the terms ‘Old Politics’ and ‘New Politics’. He describes what he refers to as ‘Populist’ activities occurring apart from the activities of Washington D.C.’s political elites. Instead of being primarily concerned with obtaining partisan advantage, these populists are focusing upon realizing political and economic reforms. A variety of local groups are creating new strategies for influencing public opinion and both parties. These are some of the currents of our New Politics.

David Sirota describes Liberals in Conservative Red States who have learned to frame their proposals in terms of fairness and independence from outside corporate wall street interests. And have learned to focus upon what they could pragmatically achieve. Including Vermont Senator Barney Frank, Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone, Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, Montana Senator Jon Testor and Senator Sherrod Brown.

David Sirota describes the ways in which our Working Families Party in New York State is able to endorse or not endorse Democratic candidates, so as to assist or compete with them. They can avoid the Perot-Nader affect of throwing the election to the enemy due to New York’s allowing the votes for a candidate endorsed by different parties to be fused into one vote total. The result is increased leverage over Democratic candidates who seek their endorsement.

David Sirota describes how white collar ‘temp’ workers are organizing to receive benefits appropriate to their employment status. He describes how stockholders are organizing to force management to accede to their social concerns. He describes how Bloggers are creating instant and comprehensive identification and discussion of political events and issues. These various activities have emerged independently far from the centers of political power. I believe that David Sirota fails to mention Barack Obama’s New Politics movement, only because it emerged so recently.

The Old Politics consisted primarily of the Democrats and Republicans conducting top-down partisan warfare. For many years following Lyndon Johnson’s presidency, our Republics faired best with their superior understanding of their values, their discipline, their political infrastructure, their willingness and ability to attack Democrats and more. Confused about our values, composed of an undisciplined set of interest groups, having little political infrastructure, we Democrats went into a losing defensive crouch.

Upon containing control of congress in 1994 and the presidency in 2000, our Republicans became increasingly ideologically incompetent, corrupt and deceptive. During President Bush’s second term, his failures on virtually every front sparked widespread revulsion among the public and soul searching among our Democrats. Resulting in a new understanding of our Liberal values, a new aggressiveness, and a new more bottom-up political infrastructure, including internet and grass roots organizing. The goal of our new politics is not simply to elect Democrats to office, or to satisfy our interest groups. Our goal is to reclaim the American Dream.

Obama’s Approach to Creating a Fair Economy – 7/18/08

In his 2008 book Obamanomics, How Bottom-Up Economic Prosperity Will, John R. Talbott notes the difficulties that workers and would-be workers face under the Bush economy. He then presents the approaches that Barack Obama will use to make our economic pie larger and more fairly divided.

Barack Obama will fight to destroy the ability of lobbyists to influence our government to grant more power and wealth to corporations and individuals who already have an excess of wealth and power. He will resist and even reverse monopolistic mergers which result in undue economic and political power. He will regulate businesses, industries and markets to prevent their abuse of their consumers, workers, suppliers and shareholders and of our environment and public. Fraudulent actions against our government and our people will be punished.

Obama will eliminate direct and indirect subsidies to wealthy and powerful businesses, investing the money to create jobs. Some of these jobs will be to rebuild our physical and social infrastructure. Others will be to develop new environmental, energy, agricultural, medical and other technologies. Conservation of our resources and increasing our energy efficiency will be high priorities. As will be developing sustainable sources of non-carbon polluting energy. Additional money for investing and lower taxes on most Americans will come from increasing taxes on high income earners. Estate taxes will be maintained.

A pollution cap and trade system will both reduce pollution and increase innovation. Farmers and foresters will be rewarded for conserving land, water and biological resources and sequestrating carbon dioxide. Our country will cooperate with and lead international efforts to control global warming.

Vehicle mileage standards will be increased. New and old buildings will be made more energy efficient. Energy distribution systems will be improved.

Obama will remove the barriers to unionization and strikes. The Employee Free Choice Act will be passed. Permanent employees could not be classified and treated as temporary workers. Businesses will be required to offer more paid six days. The Family and Medical Leave Act will be expanded to allow workers to take leaves for more purposes.

To provide living wages, the minimum wage will be increased and indexed. The earned income tax credit will be increased. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit will be increased. Subsidies will assist all qualified students to attend college on the condition that they provide service. Assistance and subsidies will be available to those who conserve energy. Home mortgage, credit card and payday loans will be regulated. OSHA worker protections and Consumer protections (including food and medical drugs) will be strengthened and enforced. Pensions will be made transferable and protected from employer bankruptcy.

Cost controlled universal health care will reduce family health costs. Both physical and mental health care will be universally available. Cost beneficial preventive care, including close monitoring of patients with chronic illnesses. Bargaining with health care providers will lower costs. More efficient medical record keeping and communication systems will be promoted. Product and service quality will be measured, monitored and enforced.

Our federal government will invest more to ensure that everyone has equal access to quality education. These investments will include early childhood education, after school programs, providing for balanced school curriculums including math, science, communication, art, healthy living and other skills. Attention will be given to developing a diversity of educational approaches sensitive to students’ varying needs and oriented to a variety of different career paths. Teachers will be better paid, especially those who face the severest challenges.

Barack Obama will promote fair trade, in which traded goods and services do not violate environmental, labor and consumer safety protections. Companies will not receive subsidies or receive tax breaks for moving jobs overseas. Immigration will be legalized and protected from abuse by employers.

Working closely with congress and supported by a vast grassroots movement, Obama will work to implement these reforms and more. Together we can do it. We can end our National Nightmare and restore our American Dream. Besides reading Talbott’s book, you can visit Obama’s website to learn more about these reforms.

Watch the Republican Platform Fight – 7/25/08

We have noted before that John McCain must run a schizophrenic campaign. To win, he must convince Conservatives that he is a Bush loyalist and convince everyone else (who form a solid majority) that he is a maverick who differs in important ways from President Bush. Many other Republican candidates are facing the same dilemma.

Now this is becoming more difficult. Conservatives are organizing to control the Republican platform, to prevent it from reflecting John McCain’s positions on global warming, immigration, stem cell research and campaign finance. A platform fight could disrupt the convention and put McCain on the spot. If conservatives lose, they will be disgruntled. If they win, McCain and other Republican candidates will have more difficulty appealing to the rest of the country. For more.

Be Careful What You Wish For – 7/25/08

You have likely heard the saying, “Be careful what you wish for. You may get it.” John McCain has challenged Barack Obama to go to Iraq. Now Obama has visited Iraq. The result is that Iraq’s Prime Minister indicated a position on ending the occupation of Iraq that is very similar to Obama’s position. This will assist Obama’s reputation as someone who has the judgment to deal with Iraq. The opposite of what McCain likely hoped. For more.

Our Best Political Weapon Is Our Values – 7/25/08

For centuries, we Liberals have been clear about our political vision. We dream of equality of freedom and opportunity, of responsibility to each other as members of one community, of competence and compassion. Unfortunately, during the period from 1968 to 2005, many of us Liberals forgot our vision.

Our Old and New Politics

We and the Conservatives simply dreamed of winning elections. Of assuming power. This is what we have come to call, the Old Politics. In the aftermath of two presidential election defeats and our 8 year National Nightmare, we have become clearer about our vision. We have chosen a leader Barack Obama, who seeks a New Politics. A politics of urgency to unite to Reclaim our American Dream. An America in which we all have a fair start. In which we do our share and support each other. In which we get fairly rewarded for our efforts. Our New Politics is not just about winning power. It is about using power to realize our values.

Moderate is a Misleading Term

Barack Obama and many of us are now able to express these values in ways that appeal to a majority of Americans. But some people still view things through old glasses. Through the misleading framing that Conservatives created to demonize us, and that our commercial media pundits adopted.

One example is the recent misleading discussion of whether Barack Obama has changed from being very Liberal to being moderate. As we have expressed before, it is difficult to usefully define more and less Liberal. We have people who consistently stand for Liberal values and others who inconsistently depart from them in various ways. Barack Obama is consistently Liberal.

Purists and Pragmatists

As we have also expressed, Liberals can differ between purists and pragmatists. Between those who want all or nothing and those who want to take what they can get and keep attempting to obtain more. Between perfectionists and those who think we will approach perfection faster by settling for progress. And any Liberal may be a perfectionist on some issues in some situations and a pragmatist on others.

Since we can’t rerun history, we often can never know which strategy is the best in a situation.

Our Conservatives and commercial media pundits have often framed purists as Liberals and pragmatists as Moderates. This confuses our vision and values about which we are united and our strategies about which we may differ. We have become clearer about our vision and more united in our pursuit of it. Liberals agree on our vision. Upon the type of country we want to stimulate. But we often disagree on the political strategies which are most likely to get us there. When some of us want to go straight for our vision, others of us are willing to proceed more cautiously to take what we can get. On other issues, our strategies may be reversed. Often the same people are the purists or the pragmatists.

Perhaps the pundits are proclaiming that Barack Obama was a purist and is now becoming more pragmatic. They are wrong. Barack Obama has always been and is now both a purist and a pragmatist. As we virtually all are. In 2009, we will find that we can make rapid progress on some issues and will do best by proceeding more pragmatically on others. The exciting and healthy thing will be our debates over how to proceed. This is confusing both Conservatives and our commercial media pundits.

Some Liberals Think They Are Conservatives

We recently expressed and debunked some of the misleading framing concerning Liberals that Conservatives have created and promoted. Most Americans never fell for this framing. But many did. Including some very prominent Liberal thinkers. I have just been reading God’s Politics, written in 2005 by Jim Wallis who founded the Sojourners, a network of Liberal Christians working for justice and peace. On page 5, he states, “I actually happen to be conservative on issues of personal responsibility, the sacredness of human life, the reality of evil in our world, and the critical importance of individual character, parenting and strong “family values.”

Jim Wallis is confused. He is a consistent Liberal. Liberals strongly value human life, personal responsibility, family in which members support each other, and parenting to raise children to be happy and successful adults. We certainly understand that all these values are opposed and that this opposition is evil. It is Conservatives who have opposed these values with their unnecessary wars. In their allowing both businesses and governments to abuse people. In their ideology of greed and power. In their corruption, incompetence and deception. It is these Conservative behaviors that are evil.

We must continually frame our discussions of issues in terms of our values. We must clearly and repeatedly express our values, until all Liberals realize they are Liberals. Until many Conservatives realize that they should alter their values to become Liberals. Until even commercial media pundits understand the difference between Liberals and Conservatives.

First Our Values, Then Challenge Our Competitors, Finally Our Solutions

As we have expressed before, we must first express our values. Then attack the evil values and behaviors that obstruct the realization of our values. Only when we have clarified the differences between our values and Conservative ones, should we proceed to give more detail about the solutions we seek. For more. For more.

Obama Offers New Deal for American Manufacturing – 7/25/08

By United Steelworkers International Vice President Tom Conway

Democrat Supports Union Choice, Health Care Reform

During 7 ½ years of the George W. Bush presidency, one out of every five workers in manufacturing - 3.5 million all together – lost their jobs and their ticket to the American dream.

In contrast, Democrat Sen. Barack Obama pledges to rebuild industry, and with it our struggling middle class, by pumping billions of dollars into clean energy technologies, innovation incentives and the nation’s crumbling infrastructure.

Like John Edwards, our initial choice for president, Obama would make health care coverage more universal and strongly supports the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), which would free workers to choose a union without employer intimidation.

Obama believes, as do both John Edwards and Senator Hillary Clinton, that if you work hard, you should be able to count on a job that pays the bills, provides health care for when you get sick, a pension when you retire, a home for your family and an education for your children so they can fulfill their potential.

Commitment to working people

We gave a strong endorsement to Edwards when the primary contests began last year because of his deep commitment to working people and our shared beliefs. His support of EFCA and health care reform were widely shared by our members.

Before he left the race, Edwards was a passionate voice for a campaign that made this nation focus on what matters: lifting up this country and its citizens. Obama has picked up that banner.

When Edwards endorsed Obama for president as the primary contests were winding down in May, the USW once again found itself in agreement with him. The union’s International Executive Board voted unanimously to endorse Obama to be the next president.

“Senator Obama’s call for a significant change of direction amounts to far more than a compelling rallying cry,” International President Leo W. Gerard said. “It is buttressed by his record of consistent support for workers, by his call for sweeping changes to our health care system, by his unflinching support for the Employee Free Choice Act, and by his insistence that America’s trade policies must, first and foremost, serve the interests of America’s working families.”

Reforming trade policies

The specifics of the plan include substantial economic incentives and reforming America’s trade policies to ensure our workers can compete on a level playing field and create good jobs at home and real markets for American products abroad.

Obama would end the Bush-McCain policy of giving tax breaks to the companies that ship our jobs overseas and, instead, give those tax breaks to companies that create good-paying jobs in the United States. Trade deals, he believes, must include enforceable provisions to protect unions’ rights to organize and bargain collectively – a significant difference from current practice.

“The fight for American manufacturing is the fight for America’s future, Obama says, “and I believe that’s a fight this country will win.”

Central to Obama’s manufacturing revival plan is a $150- billion clean technologies venture capital fund to promote and develop clean energy technologies. He projects those technologies could create up to five million new jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced.

“The first part of this agenda is investing in clean energy – because that isn’t just how we’ll get gas prices under control, combat climate change, and free ourselves from the tyranny of oil;” Obama said. “It’s also how we’ll expand American manufacturing, create quality jobs, and grow our economy.”

Rebuilding America, revitalizing manufacturing
Obama’s plans also include a $60 billion fund to rebuild roads, bridges, transit systems and other infrastructure and a $1- billion-a-year start-up fund system for small and mid-sized manufacturers to convert to clean technologies.

Aiming help at automobile-dependent states like Michigan and Ohio, among others, Obama would also promote advanced vehicle technology and provide incentives for domestic auto makers to retool their plants to produce these new fuel-efficient vehicles. This fund could, for example, help American companies build batteries for plug-in hybrid vehicles so we don’t have to buy them from abroad.

He proposes an Advanced Manufacturing Fund that would identify and invest in the most compelling advanced manufacturing strategies in places that have been hard hit by the decline in manufacturing.
Rather than slashing funding for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership as the Bush Administration did, Obama said he would double it. The program helped create and protect over 50,000 jobs in 2006 alone, and has helped to increase the productivity of small and midsize manufacturers by up to 16%.

“That’s the kind of smart investment that will help us rebuild American manufacturing and make America more competitive,” Obama said.

To ensure our competitiveness over the longer term, Obama would invest in science and math education for our children from kindergarten through graduate school and find a solution to the health care crisis that has left 47 million Americans without health insurance and millions more struggling to pay rising costs.

In all, Obama plans to revitalize manufacturing and build job growth by advancing a clean energy economy while providing for universal health care offer a choice between real change and more of the same failed Bush policies that have done real harm to American workers in manufacturing over the last eight years.

“For the sake of our families, our economy, and our leadership in the world,” he said, “we have to renew the promise of American manufacturing.” Tom Conway

How Much Is Racism Helping John McCain? – 8/01/08

Based on unsure assumptions, this commentary is speculative. Suppose that Barack Obama leads John McCain 52% to 48%. Polls show that 15% to 20% of voters won’t vote for an African American. Let’s assume that these 15% racist voters are supporting John McCain. Subtracting 15% from 48% gives McCain 33% among non-racist voters.

Assume that if the 15% racist voters (many of whom live in our Conservative South) weren’t racist, 2/3 would support McCain and 1/3 would support Obama. Then 52% + 5% = 57% would support Obama and 33% + 10% = 43 % would support McCain. Instead of leading by 4%, Obama would be leading by 14%.

According to these assumptions, racism is costing Obama 10%, which he has been able to make up and some more by appealing better to the non-racist voters. These figures may be wrong, but they suggest a way of thinking about the racist aspect of our presidential contest.

As Expected, the McCain Campaign is whining. – 8/01/08

John McCain repeatedly called for Barack Obama to visit Iraq. Obama’s trip generated lots of media coverage. Iraq’s prime minister called for the end of American occupation of Iraq in accordance with Obama’s strategy. Obama made an outstanding speech in Berlin. He received favorable coverage.

Now the McCain campaign is whining that the media isn’t being fair. They should give more coverage to John McCain. Who has primarily been repeating again and again and again that Obama didn’t support the long so-called surge.

Notice that when the media were repeatedly covering Barack Obama’s difficult relations with his pastor Jeremiah Wright and his statement about bitterness, Obama’s campaign never whined. Conservatives are whiney victims. Liberals are happy warriors. With very few exceptions on either side.

Is Obama an Arrogant Celebrity? – 8/08/08

In 1952, Dwight Eisenhower ran for president as a Republican. He and Harry Truman had been friends who respected each other. But Eisenhower’s new Republican colleagues persuaded him he must run against Truman and his record. Truman was deeply chagrinned at this betrayal of their friendship.

Arrogance?

I believe that John McCain dislikes campaigns of personal destruction. McCain suffered from such attacks by Bush supporters in 2000. But like Eisenhower, McCain is surrounded by Republicans who strongly support character assassination. So we are seeing Barack Obama portrayed as arrogant. Which is ridiculous. His writings and speeches clearly indicate that Obama is one of our least arrogant politicians. He has repeatedly referred to himself as flawed and indicated he wants his colleagues and supporters provide needed corrections. But no matter how silly the accusation, our commercial media gives it prominence and their pundits discuss it until the next silly accusation occurs.

Celebrity?

The Republicans have also compared Barack Obama to two dissolute White women, Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. He might better be compared to such celebrities as John Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Robert Redford or Paul Newman. More such nonsense can be expected. It is not clear how effective such advertisements are. I guess that few supporters of either candidate are affected, nor are those who are paying little attention to politics. Their major effect may be to distract attention from more serious policy discussions. These personal attacks by Republicans and sustained by our commercial media pundits may harm our voters more than they harm either candidate.